nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

AL-05 House 2026

95.9% RDale Strong leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
95.5%
Kalshi
96.3%
Spread
0.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AL-05 House.

  1. The midterm elections: What you need to know

    Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D) [...] Advertisement

    aol.comGarciaMoodyNixonPoindexterCruzSneed
  2. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  3. House Republicans brace for midterm blowout

    The article discusses how House Republicans are bracing for potential midterm losses and facing tight races in several districts, including Alabama's 04th/05th? (the excerpt mentions Rep.

    Punchbowl NewsFinstadSneedPusczek
  4. “No excuses:” Tennessee Secretary of State encourages voters to cast their ballot now, two weeks ahead of November midterms | Local News

    The article highlights early voting in Rhea County, Tennessee, ahead of the November midterms, with residents like Michael Sneed (not Andrew) voting early to avoid long lines.

    local3news.comSneed
  5. Figures, Marques trade blame over farm bill in Alabama congressional race

    In Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District race, U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures (D) disputes Republican contender Rhett Marques’s claim that Figures’ farm bill vote harmed Alabama farmers, calling the accusation misleading.

    WTVY Channel 4SneedAkin

Dale Strong, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RDale Strong 95.9% 95.5% 96.3% 0.8 pts –
DAndrew Sneed 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-05/embed.html" title="AL-05 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-05/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-al-05">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-05/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-al-05"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-05/card-landscape.png" alt="AL-05 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Andrew Sneed

Democratic

Andrew Sneed, a mechanical contractor, is the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 5th congressional district in 2026 after winning a primary runoff, and faces Republican incumbent Dale Strong in the general election.

Dale Strong

Dale Strong

Republican U.S. Representative for Alabama's 5th congressional district (since 2023)

Dale Strong, a Republican who has represented Alabama's 5th congressional district since 2023 after chairing the Madison County Commission, faces Democrat Andrew Sneed, a mechanical contractor, in 2026.

Born 1970 · Monrovia, Alabama

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi21.7K contracts

Alabama's 5th District margin of victory

Strong, 10+ pts
97.9%
Strong, 13+ pts
92.4%
Strong, 16+ pts
84.5%
Strong, 19+ pts
73.5%
Strong, 22+ pts
59.0%
Strong, 25+ pts
44.0%
Strong, 28+ pts
28.5%
Strong, 31+ pts
16.5%
Strong, 34+ pts
7.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.9K traded

AL-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
3.5%
Republican 0-10%
3.8%
Republican 10-15%
3.4%
Republican 15-20%
36.0%
Republican 20-25%
34.5%
Republican 25-30%
19.5%
Republican 30-35%
4.2%
Republican 35-40%
3.6%
Republican 40%+
7.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$67.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Dale Strong: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $671 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Dale Strong: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.5% · $609 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Dale Strong

If the House member sworn in for AL-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Alabama

  1. Alabama SenateR98%
  2. Alabama GovernorR93%
  3. AL-01 HouseR96%
  4. AL-02 HouseR71%
  5. AL-03 HouseR98%
  6. AL-04 HouseR98%
  7. AL-06 HouseR97%
  8. AL-07 HouseD98%