US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for AL-01 House.
The article profiles Maddux McCray, a Democratic candidate for Alabama’s 82nd House District, focusing on his views on education and affordability.
CarlJerry Carl (AL-01) is not the subject of the linked article. The piece reports that Rep.
CarlThe article reports that Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey called a special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional map after a Supreme Court ruling.
CarlThe article discusses U.S. Representative Barry Moore, who represents Alabama’s 1st district (AL-01) and resides in Enterprise, Alabama with his family.
The article covers House Speaker Mike Johnson’s stop in McAllen, Texas, highlighting the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) as a pivotal battleground for control of the House.
The page highlights Clyde Jones Jr. as part of Alabama A&M University’s coverage of leadership and innovation.
In Alabama’s 1st Congressional District race, incumbent Jerry Carl (AL-01) and challenger Chad Flugum? Wait: the article mentions Figures and Marques in a debate over the farm bill.
CarlThe article highlights Arkansas 2nd Congressional District candidate Chris Jones (a Democrat) who could become the first Black member of Congress from Arkansas if elected, challenging Republican Rep. French Hill.
Topic: A televised debate in Little Rock between Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) and Democratic challenger Chris Jones focused heavily on housing policy and the cost of living.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJerry Carl | 96.1% | 95.5% | 97.2% | 1.7 pts | – | |
| DClyde Jones Jr. | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Clyde Jones Jr., a community organizer, is the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Jerry Carl, a former U.S. representative who served from 2021 to 2025.
Jerry Carl, a Republican who represented Alabama's 1st congressional district from 2021 to 2025, is his party's nominee for the 1st district seat in 2026 against Democrat Clyde Jones, a community organizer.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
| Carl, 18+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Carl, 21+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Carl, 24+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Carl, 27+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Carl, 30+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Carl, 33+ pts | 25.0% | |
| Carl, 36+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Carl, 39+ pts | 9.9% | |
| Carl, 42+ pts | 7.9% | |
| Carl, 45+ pts | 6.1% implied | |
| Carl, 48+ pts | 4.8% implied | |
| Carl, 51+ pts | 4.7% implied | |
| Carl, 54+ pts | 4.6% implied | |
| Carl, 57+ pts | 4.5% implied |
AL-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 2.8% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 3.9% | |
| Republican 10-20% | 5.4% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 24.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | – | |
| Republican 30-35% | – | |
| Republican 35-40% | 11.8% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 0.8% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 4.5% | |
| Republican 50%+ | 3.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Jerry Carl: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 96.9% · $1.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jerry Carl: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 98.0% · $713 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jerry Carl
If the House member sworn in for AL-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
