House · 3 November 2026

AL-06 House 2026

97.2% RGary Palmer leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.2%
Kalshi: 98.8%
Spread: 2.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AL-06 House.

1 story this week

Top story

ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

Gary Palmer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RGary Palmer	97.2%		96.2%	98.8%	2.6 pts	–
DMaurice Mercer	1.9%		2.0%	1.7%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Gary Palmer

Republican U.S. Representative for Alabama's 6th congressional district (since 2015)

Gary Palmer, a Republican who has represented Alabama's 6th congressional district since 2015 and chaired the Republican Policy Committee from 2019 to 2025, faces Democrat Maurice Mercer, a former Pelham City Council President, in 2026.

Born 1954 · Hackleburg, Alabama

Full candidate profile →

Maurice Mercer

Democratic

Maurice Mercer, a former Pelham City Council President, is the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 6th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Gary Palmer in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.8K contracts

Alabama's 6th District margin of victory

Palmer, 18+ pts		95.6%
Palmer, 21+ pts		–
Palmer, 24+ pts		80.0% implied
Palmer, 27+ pts		71.5%
Palmer, 30+ pts		61.0%
Palmer, 33+ pts		46.5%
Palmer, 36+ pts		32.5%
Palmer, 39+ pts		20.5%
Palmer, 42+ pts		12.7%
Palmer, 45+ pts		4.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.5K traded

AL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.5%
Republican 0-10%		4.0%
Republican 10-20%		9.7%
Republican 20-25%		16.5%
Republican 25-30%		24.5%
Republican 30-35%		26.5%
Republican 35-40%		17.0%
Republican 40-45%		4.4%
Republican 45-50%		4.0%
Republican 50%+		1.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$26.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Gary Palmer: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 98.2% · $994 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.3K contracts traded