US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for AL-04 House.
The article profiles Todd Schaefer, a retired Navy veteran and realtor, who is running for U.S. House of Representatives in Florida’s 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election.
The district includes all of Allen, Auglaize, Champaign, Hardin, Logan, Marion, Morrow, Shelby and Union counties and parts of Delaware and Richland counties.
The article discusses how House Republicans are bracing for potential midterm losses and facing tight races in several districts, including Alabama's 04th/05th? (the excerpt mentions Rep.
The article notes that State Rep. Parker Moore, who represents Alabama House District 4 (parts of Limestone, Madison, and Morgan counties), has joined an energy board connected to national and international energy…
Alabama Rep. Parker Moore (AL-04) says widening I-65 is unlikely in the near term and that decisions on data centers should be made by cities and counties, not the state.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRobert Aderholt | 98.1% | 98.6% | 97.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| DAmanda Pusczek | 1.3% Kalshi only |
– | 1.3% | – | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Amanda Pusczek, a registered nurse, is the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Robert Aderholt in the November general election.
Robert Aderholt, a Republican who has represented Alabama's 4th congressional district since 1997 and is the dean of Alabama's congressional delegation, faces Democrat Amanda Pusczek, a registered nurse, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
| Aderholt, 45+ pts | 96.1% | |
| Aderholt, 48+ pts | 95.9% | |
| Aderholt, 51+ pts | 94.5% | |
| Aderholt, 54+ pts | 91.0% | |
| Aderholt, 57+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Aderholt, 60+ pts | 61.0% | |
| Aderholt, 63+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Aderholt, 66+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Aderholt, 69+ pts | 11.0% |
AL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 1.4% | |
| Republican 0-35% | 1.1% | |
| Republican 35-45% | 3.3% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 2.5% | |
| Republican 50-55% | 16.8% | |
| Republican 55-60% | 32.5% | |
| Republican 60-65% | 30.0% | |
| Republican 65-70% | 17.8% | |
| Republican 70-75% | 3.6% | |
| Republican 75%+ | 0.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Robert Aderholt: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.8% · $894 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Robert Aderholt: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 99.0% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Robert Aderholt
If the House member sworn in for AL-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
