Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Alabama Senate 2026

97.8% RBarry Moore leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.8%
Kalshi
98.2%
Spread
1.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Alabama Senate.

  1. Tracking the 35 Senate seats up for grabs in 2026

    The Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.

  2. Full list of 2026 Senate race candidates

    There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.

  3. Odds Continue to Tighten in Texas Senate Race: Ken Paxton Payout Odds $150
  4. Amid ‘time of transition,’ Freedom Caucus sees room to grow its influence

    The article discusses the current state and potential growth of the Freedom Caucus as it enters a transitional period, with members like Missouri Rep.

    browardtribune.comBurlisonFlippoMoore
  5. AL midterms are closing in: A look at who is running and their policies

    Everett Wess is a Republican candidate for Alabama’s U.S. Senate in the upcoming election, running in a field that includes U.S. Rep. Barry Moore.

    theaumnibus.comWessMoore
More coverage 5
  1. Fort Rucker selected to lead Army's autonomous technologies - Alabama Daily News

    The article reports that Fort Rucker has been designated to lead the Army’s autonomous technologies efforts, described by U.S. Rep.

    aldailynews.comMoore
  2. Georgia Senate & Governor Primaries: Mike Collins & Rick Jackson Win Big! (2026)

    Barry Moore won Alabama’s Republican Senate primary runoff, defeating former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson.

    lightinside.orgMoore
  3. The Tech Oligarchs Have Captured Washington: Now They’re Pivoting to the States

    The crypto industry is the largest political spender this election cycle, having spent over $200 million so far. The race it spent the most on was Felix Barry Moore’s campaign for U.S. Senate in Alabama.

    TruthOutMoore
  4. Fort Rucker chosen as seat for Army drone autonomous weapons efforts

    The designation drew support from U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville, R-Alabama, and Wiregrass federal lawmakers U.S. Senator Katie Britt, R-Alabama, and U.S. Representative Barry Moore, R-Alabama.

    Alabama Political ReporterMoore
  5. Jelks presses Moore to defend Omar after home raid

    Independent U.S. Senate candidate Craig Jelks is calling on his Republican opponent, U.S. Representative Barry Moore, R-Alabama, to speak out on behalf of his congressional colleague, U.S.

    Alabama Political ReporterWessMoore

Barry Moore, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RBarry Moore 97.8% 96.8% 98.2% 1.4 pts –
DEverett Wess 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Barry Moore

Barry Moore

Republican U.S. Representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district (since 2025)

Barry Moore, a Republican U.S. representative from Alabama since 2021, is his party's 2026 nominee for the U.S. Senate seat left open by Tommy Tuberville.

Born 1966 · Coffee County, Alabama

Everett Wess

Democratic

Everett Wess is an attorney and the Democratic nominee for the open United States Senate seat in Alabama in the November 3, 2026 election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi12.1K contracts

Alabama Senate margin of victory

Moore, 11+ pts
85.5%
Moore, 13+ pts
79.5%
Moore, 15+ pts
69.5%
Moore, 17+ pts
60.0%
Moore, 19+ pts
49.5%
Moore, 21+ pts
35.5%
Moore, 23+ pts
27.5%
Moore, 25+ pts
18.5%
Moore, 27+ pts
12.0%
Moore, 29+ pts
7.8%
Moore, 31+ pts
5.6%
Moore, 33+ pts
5.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.2K traded

Alabama Senate Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.9%
Republican 0-5%
–
Republican 5-10%
14.0%
Republican 10-15%
15.5%
Republican 15-20%
27.0%
Republican 20-25%
15.6%
Republican 25-30%
16.0%
Republican 30-35%
7.8%
Republican 35%+
7.1%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$13.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Barry Moore: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.5% · $4.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi13.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Barry Moore: Counted · bid 96.9% / ask 99.4% · $10.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Barry Moore

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alabama for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi