House · 3 November 2026

AL-02 House 2026

70.7% RRhett Marques leads TruthIndex™Lean R

Polymarket: 69.5%
Kalshi: 73.5%
Spread: 4.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −2.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Rhett Marques, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRhett Marques	70.7%		69.5%	73.5%	4.0 pts	–
DShomari Figures	29.4%		30.5%	26.5%	4.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-02/embed.html" title="AL-02 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-al-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-al-02"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/al-02/card-landscape.png" alt="AL-02 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Rhett Marques

Republican Member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 91st district (since 2018)

Rhett Marques, a Republican member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 91st district since 2018, is his party's nominee for Alabama's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures.

Born 1972 · Spanish Fort, Alabama

Full candidate profile →

Shomari Figures

Democratic U.S. Representative for Alabama's 2nd congressional district (since 2025)

Shomari Figures, a Democrat who has represented Alabama's 2nd congressional district since 2025, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Republican Rhett Marques, a member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 91st district.

Born 1985 · Mobile, Alabama

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.3K contracts

Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory

Figures, 2+ pts		18.5%
Figures, 5+ pts		8.9%
Figures, 8+ pts		4.5%
Figures, 11+ pts		6.4% implied
Figures, 14+ pts		5.2% implied
Figures, 17+ pts		4.7% implied
Figures, 20+ pts		4.6% implied
Figures, 23+ pts		4.5% implied
Figures, 26+ pts		2.8%
Figures, 29+ pts		4.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$1.6K traded

AL-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+		4.7%
Republican 20-25%		6.7%
Republican 15-20%		–
Republican 10-15%		–
Republican 5-10%		–
Republican 0-5%		–
Democrat 0-5%		–
Democrat 5%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$84.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Rhett Marques: Counted · bid 69.0% / ask 70.0% · $84.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi205.3K contracts traded