US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-03 House.
The article reports that U.S. lawmakers, including Ami Bera (CA-03), expressed outrage over an attempted mass shooting at a Hindu temple and emphasized that no American should fear practicing their faith.
BeraAmi Bera is the U.S. Representative for California's 3rd Congressional District (CA-03).
BeraAmi Bera, the California-3rd District congressman, commented on the Chicago temple incident in which a teen allegedly attempted a mass shooting.
BeraThe article is a guide to Elk Grove Unified School District trustee races and includes endorsements for candidates. It notes that Ami Bera, the U.S.
BeraAmi Bera (CA-03) is mentioned among Indian-American candidates; as of June 30, he had raised about $1.25 million and held roughly $1.83 million in cash.
BeraNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAmi Bera | 96.0% | 96.0% | 95.8% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| RRobb Tucker | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Ami Bera, a Democrat and physician who has represented California in the U.S. House since 2013, faces Republican Robb Tucker in the 2026 election for California's 3rd congressional district.
Robb Tucker, a Republican who has served as a Nevada County supervisor since 2025, faces Democratic incumbent Ami Bera in the 2026 election for California's 3rd congressional district.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 3rd District margin of victory
| Bera, 5+ pts | 96.0% | |
| Bera, 8+ pts | 94.9% | |
| Bera, 11+ pts | 92.5% | |
| Bera, 14+ pts | 86.5% | |
| Bera, 17+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Bera, 20+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Bera, 23+ pts | 53.0% | |
| Bera, 26+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Bera, 29+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Bera, 32+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Bera, 35+ pts | 9.1% |
CA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | – | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | – | |
| Democrat 10-15% | – | |
| Democrat 15-20% | – | |
| Democrat 20-25% | – | |
| Democrat 25-30% | – | |
| Democrat 30%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Ami Bera: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.9% · $21.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Ami Bera: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 96.9% · $1.5K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Ami Bera
If the House member sworn in for CA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
