US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-10 House.
The article discusses how California’s redrawn congressional districts, approved via Proposition 50 in November 2025, could yield up to four additional House seats for Democrats and make several California races among…
The article is about the race for California Assembly District 42 in the Nov. 3 General Election.
The new District 6 shifted from its northern Sacramento-area suburbs to cover West Sacramento and parts of Roseville, Rocklin and Citrus Heights. The district still contains Natomas and sections of northern Sacramento.
The article covers Orange County’s 45th Congressional District (CA-45), not CA-31.
The press release highlights a bipartisan bill, the Advanced Manufacturing Jobs in America Act of 2026, introduced by Rep. Norma Torres (CA-35) and Rep.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMark DeSaulnier | 96.6% | 96.1% | 98.0% | 1.9 pts | – | |
| RJeff Frese | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 2.0 pts | – |
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Jeff Frese, a Republican business owner, faces Democratic incumbent Mark DeSaulnier in the 2026 general election for California's 10th congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.
Mark DeSaulnier, a Democrat who has represented California in the U.S. House since 2015, faces Republican business owner Jeff Frese in the 2026 race for California's 10th congressional district.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 10th District margin of victory
| DeSaulnier, 31+ pts | 95.9% | |
| DeSaulnier, 34+ pts | 94.4% | |
| DeSaulnier, 37+ pts | 89.8% | |
| DeSaulnier, 40+ pts | 80.0% | |
| DeSaulnier, 43+ pts | 66.0% | |
| DeSaulnier, 46+ pts | – | |
| DeSaulnier, 49+ pts | 32.0% | |
| DeSaulnier, 52+ pts | 18.0% | |
| DeSaulnier, 55+ pts | 7.3% |
CA-10 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | – | |
| Democrat 0-15% | 6.0% | |
| Democrat 15-25% | – | |
| Democrat 25-30% | – | |
| Democrat 30-35% | – | |
| Democrat 35-40% | – | |
| Democrat 40-45% | – | |
| Democrat 45-50% | – | |
| Democrat 50-55% | – | |
| Democrat 55%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Mark DeSaulnier: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.1% · $1.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mark DeSaulnier: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 99.7% · $485 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mark DeSaulnier
If the House member sworn in for CA-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
