nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-19 House 2026

98.8% DJimmy Panetta leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
98.4%
Kalshi
99.0%
Spread
0.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-19 House.

  1. Data Center Community Meeting is Tonight at San Jose City Hall

    In other data center news today, Rep. Jimmy Panetta (CA-19) and Greg Steube (FL-17) wrote a bipartisan letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressing concerns about reports that Meta is seeking to use the federal…

    sanjoseinside.comPanettaSteube

Jimmy Panetta, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJimmy Panetta 98.8% 98.4% 99.0% 0.6 pts –
RPeter Coe Verbica 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-19/embed.html" title="CA-19 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-19/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-19">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-19/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-19"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-19/card-landscape.png" alt="CA-19 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Jimmy Panetta

Jimmy Panetta

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 19th congressional district (since 2023)

Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat and former Navy intelligence officer who has served in the U.S. House since 2017, faces Republican financial planner Peter Coe Verbica in California's 19th congressional district in 2026.

Born 1969 · Washington, D.C.

Peter Coe Verbica

Republican

Peter Coe Verbica, a Republican financial planner, faces Democratic incumbent Jimmy Panetta in the 2026 election for California's 19th congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 19th District margin of victory

Panetta, 34+ pts
91.8%
Panetta, 37+ pts
83.0%
Panetta, 40+ pts
71.0%
Panetta, 43+ pts
55.0%
Panetta, 46+ pts
38.0%
Panetta, 49+ pts
–
Panetta, 52+ pts
11.1%
Panetta, 55+ pts
5.1%
Panetta, 58+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$50.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jimmy Panetta: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.4% · $272 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jimmy Panetta: Counted · bid 98.1% / ask 99.8% · $590 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jimmy Panetta

If the House member sworn in for CA-19 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%