US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-21 House.
Kyle Kirkland, a Central Valley businessman and candidate for California’s 21st Congressional District (CA-21), discusses in this episode of the AgNet News Hour rising operating costs and the need for a different…
Congressman Jim Costa (CA-21) is leading a bipartisan effort to fully implement the Graham-Russia sanctions law.
CostaThe 13th District, which stretches from Stockton down State Route 99 to Merced, was one of the country’s closest swing seats until voters last year approved Proposition 50, the congressional redistricting plan designed…
Races: Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-Anaheim) are the two incumbents at the top of the ticket in the redrawn CA-40, seeking reelection.
A bipartisan group of 22 House lawmakers, led by Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA-21), urged the Trump administration to fully and faithfully implement the Lindsey O.
CostaThe new District 6 shifted from its northern Sacramento-area suburbs to cover West Sacramento and parts of Roseville, Rocklin and Citrus Heights. The district still contains Natomas and sections of northern Sacramento.
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
The article discusses Randy Villegas, a Bernie Sanders-backed progressive Democrat challenging incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao in California’s CD-21 (Central Valley).
The Newsweek article discusses a bipartisan letter urging President Trump to revoke a Russia diesel deal, led by Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) and signed by Republicans including Rep.
Topic: Emanuel Cleaver (Missouri) and his stance within the House, particularly in relation to leadership dynamics and support for long-tenured members.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJim Costa | 94.8% | 95.5% | 94.7% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| RKyle Kirkland | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 1.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jim Costa, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2005 and has represented California's 21st congressional district since 2023, faces Republican casino owner Kyle Kirkland in his 2026 reelection race.
Kyle Kirkland, a Republican casino owner who ran for California's 20th congressional district in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Jim Costa in the 2026 election for the 21st congressional district.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 21st District margin of victory
| Costa, 2+ pts | 95.0% | |
| Costa, 5+ pts | 93.7% | |
| Costa, 8+ pts | 89.1% | |
| Costa, 11+ pts | 78.0% | |
| Costa, 14+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Costa, 17+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Costa, 20+ pts | 32.0% | |
| Costa, 23+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Costa, 26+ pts | 8.5% | |
| Costa, 29+ pts | 4.9% | |
| Costa, 32+ pts | 3.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Jim Costa: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 95.8% · $710 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jim Costa: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 94.8% · $5.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jim Costa
If the House member sworn in for CA-21 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
