US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-24 House.
A University of Kent-led team estimates that up to 26.8% of the Earth's land surface could already be under some form of conservation, higher than official figures list (about 18.5% protected).
The article discusses targets to conserve 30% of land and seas, emphasizing that area coverage alone isn’t enough.
The article quotes Bob Smith, director of the Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology at the University of Kent, urging authorities to pay more attention to conservation areas that are currently recorded only in…
The article discusses a nature study that estimates 26.8% of land is conserved, but cautions that this broader count reveals gaps in protection and potential missing areas in the global tally.
Official recognition of existing conservation areas in national datasets is lacking; many areas are recorded only locally.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSalud Carbajal | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.8% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RBob Smith | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Bob Smith, a Republican and engineer, faces Democratic incumbent Salud Carbajal in the 2026 general election for California's 24th congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.
Salud Carbajal, a Democrat who has represented California's 24th congressional district since 2017, faces Republican Bob Smith, an engineer who finished second in the top-two primary, in the 2026 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 24th District margin of victory
| Carbajal, 17+ pts | 91.6% | |
| Carbajal, 20+ pts | 84.0% | |
| Carbajal, 23+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Carbajal, 26+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Carbajal, 29+ pts | 44.0% | |
| Carbajal, 32+ pts | 30.0% | |
| Carbajal, 35+ pts | 18.0% | |
| Carbajal, 38+ pts | 9.3% | |
| Carbajal, 41+ pts | 5.0% | |
| Carbajal, 44+ pts | 3.8% | |
| Carbajal, 47+ pts | 3.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Salud Carbajal: Counted · bid 97.8% / ask 97.9% · $953 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Salud Carbajal: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 98.4% · $814 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Salud Carbajal
If the House member sworn in for CA-24 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
