US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-31 House.
The article covers the race for Ohio House District 31 between Democrat J. Noah Spinner and Republican Mike Kahoe, focusing on issues like property taxes and data centers as central to the contest to succeed Bill Roemer.
Races: Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-Anaheim) are the two incumbents at the top of the ticket in the redrawn CA-40, seeking reelection.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
Himes
Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianThe article covers Orange County’s 45th Congressional District (CA-45), not CA-31.
The article profiles candidates for California’s 26th Congressional District ( Ventura County’s largest district), where Democrat Jacqui Irwin (state assembly veteran) and Republican Sam Gallucci (pastor and former tech…
The Washington Post report notes that Congress has yet to regulate AI amid rising threats, while lawmakers personally profit from the AI boom.
CisnerosThe article discusses a California House race in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District for the Nov. 3 election, featuring Democrat Richard Pan vs. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA).
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGil Cisneros | 96.0% | 95.8% | 97.8% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| REric Ching | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Eric Ching, a Republican and former Walnut city councilor, faces Democratic incumbent Gil Cisneros in the 2026 general election for California's 31st congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.
Gil Cisneros, a Democrat and former Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness who has represented California's 31st congressional district since 2025, faces Republican Eric Ching, a former Walnut city councilor, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 31st District margin of victory
| Cisneros, 15+ pts | 86.9% | |
| Cisneros, 18+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Cisneros, 21+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Cisneros, 24+ pts | – | |
| Cisneros, 27+ pts | – | |
| Cisneros, 30+ pts | 22.0% | |
| Cisneros, 33+ pts | 12.3% | |
| Cisneros, 36+ pts | 5.5% | |
| Cisneros, 39+ pts | 4.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Gil Cisneros: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.7% · $3.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Gil Cisneros: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 99.7% · $582 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Gil Cisneros
If the House member sworn in for CA-31 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
