House · 3 November 2026

CA-33 House 2026

96.2% DPete Aguilar leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 95.8%
Kalshi: 96.7%
Spread: 1.1 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Pete Aguilar, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DPete Aguilar	96.2%		95.8%	96.7%	0.9 pts	–
RStephanie Vargas	4.5%		4.5%	3.4%	1.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Pete Aguilar

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 33rd congressional district (since 2015)

Pete Aguilar, a Democrat who has represented California in the U.S. House since 2015 and chairs the House Democratic Caucus, faces Republican Stephanie Vargas, a former Colton chief deputy city clerk, for the 33rd district in 2026.

Born 1979 · Fontana, California

Full candidate profile →

Stephanie Vargas

Republican

Stephanie Vargas, a Republican and former chief deputy city clerk of Colton, faces Democratic incumbent Pete Aguilar in the 2026 election for California's 33rd congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi400 contracts

California's 33rd District margin of victory

Aguilar, 11+ pts		94.4%
Aguilar, 14+ pts		89.8%
Aguilar, 17+ pts		81.0%
Aguilar, 20+ pts		69.0%
Aguilar, 23+ pts		55.0%
Aguilar, 26+ pts		–
Aguilar, 29+ pts		27.0%
Aguilar, 32+ pts		16.0%
Aguilar, 35+ pts		7.4%
Aguilar, 38+ pts		4.6%
Aguilar, 41+ pts		3.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$21.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Pete Aguilar: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 96.2% · $1.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.7K contracts traded