House · 3 November 2026

CA-35 House 2026

97.4% DNorma Torres leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.4%
Kalshi: 98.9%
Spread: 2.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −1.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Norma Torres, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DNorma Torres	97.4%		96.4%	98.9%	2.5 pts	–
RMike Cargile	1.0% Kalshi only		–	1.0%	–	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mike Cargile

Republican

Mike Cargile, a Republican independent filmmaker who was the runner-up in California's 35th congressional district in 2020, 2022 and 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Norma Torres for the seat again in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Norma Torres

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 35th congressional district (since 2015)

Norma Torres, a Democrat who has represented California's 35th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2015, faces Republican independent filmmaker Mike Cargile for re-election to the 35th district seat in 2026.

Born 1965 · Escuintla, Guatemala

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 35th District margin of victory

Torres, 11+ pts		91.5%
Torres, 14+ pts		83.0%
Torres, 17+ pts		72.5%
Torres, 20+ pts		58.5%
Torres, 23+ pts		44.0%
Torres, 26+ pts		30.0%
Torres, 29+ pts		19.0%
Torres, 32+ pts		9.4%
Torres, 35+ pts		5.1%
Torres, 38+ pts		3.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$46.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Norma Torres: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 98.7% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi879 contracts traded