CA-36 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 97.3%
- Kalshi
- 98.8%
- Spread
- 1.5 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.9
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Live News
Recent coverage for CA-36 House.
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2026 United States general election
31st districtEric J Ching (R) vs Gilbert Cisneros (D)KeyOpen
No story this week names this candidate.
Ted Lieu, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTed Lieu | 97.6% | 97.3% | 98.8% | 1.5 pts | – | |
| RHouston Brignano | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Houston Brignano
Houston Brignano, a Republican technology executive, faces Democratic incumbent Ted Lieu in the 2026 election for California's 36th congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.
Ted Lieu
Ted Lieu, a Democrat who has represented California's 36th congressional district since 2023 and is vice chair of the House Democratic Caucus, faces Republican technology executive Houston Brignano for re-election in 2026.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1 contracts
California's 36th District margin of victory
| Lieu, 36+ pts | 92.5% | |
| Lieu, 39+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Lieu, 42+ pts | – | |
| Lieu, 45+ pts | 59.0% | |
| Lieu, 48+ pts | 43.0% | |
| Lieu, 51+ pts | 27.0% | |
| Lieu, 54+ pts | 14.4% | |
| Lieu, 57+ pts | 6.2% | |
| Lieu, 60+ pts | 4.0% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$86.1K traded
Prices which party wins.
Ted Lieu: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 97.9% · $2.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi4.9K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Ted Lieu: Counted · bid 97.8% / ask 99.7% · $490 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Ted Lieu
If the House member sworn in for CA-36 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in California
- California GovernorD96%
- CA-01 HouseD95%
- CA-02 HouseD98%
- CA-03 HouseD96%
- CA-04 HouseD96%
- CA-05 HouseR93%
- CA-06 HouseD94%
- CA-07 HouseD97%