House · 3 November 2026

CA-42 House 2026

96.4% DRobert Garcia leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.0%
Kalshi: 97.8%
Spread: 1.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-42 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Huntington Beach police union spends over $100,000 in council race

The Huntington Beach police union spent more than $100,000 in support of local council candidates, including endorsements for Brian Burley.

oc-lifehub.comYesterdayBurley

Robert Garcia, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DRobert Garcia	96.4%		96.0%	97.8%	1.8 pts	–
RBrian Burley	3.2%		3.2%	2.2%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-42/embed.html" title="CA-42 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-42/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-42">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-42/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-42"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-42/card-landscape.png" alt="CA-42 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Brian Burley

Republican

Brian Burley, a Republican Huntington Beach City School District trustee and perennial candidate, faces Democratic incumbent Robert Garcia for California's 42nd congressional district in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Robert Garcia

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 42nd congressional district (since 2023)

Robert Garcia, a Democrat who has represented California's 42nd congressional district since 2023 and previously served as mayor of Long Beach, faces Republican Brian Burley, a Huntington Beach City School District trustee, in 2026.

Born 1977 · Lima, Peru

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi444 contracts

California's 42nd District margin of victory

Garcia, 14+ pts		96.0%
Garcia, 17+ pts		94.7%
Garcia, 20+ pts		91.3%
Garcia, 23+ pts		82.5%
Garcia, 26+ pts		70.5%
Garcia, 29+ pts		56.0%
Garcia, 32+ pts		–
Garcia, 35+ pts		26.5%
Garcia, 38+ pts		14.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$43.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Robert Garcia: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 96.9% · $2.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.1K contracts traded