House · 3 November 2026

CA-43 House 2026

97.3% DMaxine Waters leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.8%
Kalshi: 98.4%
Spread: 1.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-43 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Appleton council will consider near ban on license plate readers

The article reports on Appleton council discussions about a near-ban on license plate reader (LPR) technology, highlighting local governance and policy considerations.

witness.usatoday.com21h agoMorales

Maxine Waters, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMaxine Waters	97.3%		96.8%	98.4%	1.6 pts	–
RCristian Morales	2.7%		2.9%	1.8%	1.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-43/embed.html" title="CA-43 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-43/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-43">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-43/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-43"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-43/card-landscape.png" alt="CA-43 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Cristian Morales

Republican

Cristian Morales, a Republican manufacturing executive, faces Democratic incumbent Maxine Waters for California's 43rd congressional district in 2026 after both advanced from the top-two primary.

Full candidate profile →

Maxine Waters

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 43rd congressional district (since 1991)

Maxine Waters, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 1991 and is ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, faces Republican manufacturing executive Cristian Morales for California's 43rd congressional district in 2026.

Born 1938 · St. Louis, Missouri

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1 contracts

California's 43rd District margin of victory

Waters, 48+ pts		92.8%
Waters, 51+ pts		87.6%
Waters, 54+ pts		80.0%
Waters, 57+ pts		70.0%
Waters, 60+ pts		57.5%
Waters, 63+ pts		45.0%
Waters, 66+ pts		31.0%
Waters, 69+ pts		19.0%
Waters, 72+ pts		9.2%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$32.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Maxine Waters: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 97.0% · $2.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.1K contracts traded