US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-48 House.
Contenders: Democrat Jacqui Irwin (64), current state assemblywoman (42nd District); Republican Sam Gallucci (67), pastor and former tech executive.
Desmond
WilpertThe article discusses how California’s redrawn congressional districts, approved via Proposition 50 in November 2025, could yield up to four additional House seats for Democrats and make several California races among…
The new District 6 shifted from its northern Sacramento-area suburbs to cover West Sacramento and parts of Roseville, Rocklin and Citrus Heights. The district still contains Natomas and sections of northern Sacramento.
The article covers Orange County’s 45th Congressional District (CA-45), not CA-31.
The article covers the race for California’s 24th Congressional District (Ventura County area), featuring candidates Carbajal and Smith who both come from low-income backgrounds.
DesmondNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMarni von Wilpert | 93.0% | 93.5% | 92.3% | 1.2 pts | – | |
| RJim Desmond | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Jim Desmond, a Republican San Diego County supervisor and former mayor of San Marcos, faces Democratic San Diego city councilmember Marni von Wilpert for the open seat in California's 48th congressional district in 2026.
Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic San Diego city councilmember representing the 5th district since 2020, faces Republican county supervisor Jim Desmond for the open seat in California's 48th congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 48th District margin of victory
| Wilpert, 3+ pts | 85.8% | |
| Wilpert, 6+ pts | – | |
| Wilpert, 9+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Wilpert, 12+ pts | – | |
| Wilpert, 15+ pts | 33.0% | |
| Wilpert, 18+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Wilpert, 21+ pts | 11.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Marni von Wilpert: Counted · bid 93.0% / ask 94.0% · $5.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Marni von Wilpert: Counted · bid 92.2% / ask 92.4% · $4.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Marni von Wilpert
If the House member sworn in for CA-48 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
