House · 3 November 2026

CA-51 House 2026

96.5% DSara Jacobs leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 95.6%
Kalshi: 98.0%
Spread: 2.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Sara Jacobs, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSara Jacobs	96.5%		95.6%	98.0%	2.4 pts	–
RRicardo Cabrera	2.2%		2.3%	1.9%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Ricardo Cabrera

Republican

Ricardo Cabrera, a Republican business owner, is challenging Democratic incumbent Sara Jacobs in California's 51st congressional district in the 2026 election.

Full candidate profile →

Sara Jacobs

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 51st congressional district (since 2023)

Sara Jacobs, a Democrat who has represented California's 51st congressional district since 2023 after one term in the 53rd district, faces Republican business owner Ricardo Cabrera in her 2026 re-election race.

Born 1989 · San Diego, California

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 51st District margin of victory

Jacobs, 17+ pts		93.7%
Jacobs, 20+ pts		87.5%
Jacobs, 23+ pts		77.0%
Jacobs, 26+ pts		65.0%
Jacobs, 29+ pts		–
Jacobs, 32+ pts		–
Jacobs, 35+ pts		21.0%
Jacobs, 38+ pts		11.1%
Jacobs, 41+ pts		5.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$79 traded

CA-51 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		4.5%
Democrat 0-10%		–
Democrat 10-15%		–
Democrat 15-20%		–
Democrat 20-25%		–
Democrat 25-30%		–
Democrat 30-35%		–
Democrat 35-40%		–
Democrat 40%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$34.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sara Jacobs: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 96.0% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi985 contracts traded