US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-52 House.
The article covers U.S. Senator Adam Schiff and several California Democrats, including Rep. Juan Vargas (CA-52), visiting a San Diego school to discuss immigration enforcement near schools.
VargasContext: Vargas joined San Diego school leaders and other lawmakers to condemn ICE arrests near schools in San Diego, calling for arrests to be refrained from near educational campuses.
VargasThe Episcopal Community Services (ECS) in California reports active Head Start advocacy in Washington, D.C. during Head Start Awareness Month.
VargasThe article reports on Point Loma High School students having an opportunity to question U.S. Senator (likely addressing a visit involving Rep.
VargasCalgary police, led by Supt. Jeff Bell of the Criminal Operations and Intelligence Division, announced a major drug and cash seizure in Calgary, describing the investigation as “outstanding police work.” The operation…
The page reports an update on an $8.8-million drug investigation in Canada, including new remarks from Supt. Jeff Bell of the Calgary Police Service (CPS), Criminal Operations & Intelligence Division.
Calgary police (CPS) announced a four-month investigation into a drug distribution network spanning Calgary, Edmonton, and surrounding areas, led by Supt.
Four people have been charged in what is described as one of the largest drug busts in Calgary’s history.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJuan Vargas | 97.2% | 96.8% | 97.2% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| RJeff Belle | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Jeff Belle, a Republican business owner, is challenging Democratic incumbent Juan Vargas in California's 52nd congressional district in the 2026 election.
Juan Vargas, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2013 and is the incumbent in California's 52nd congressional district, faces Republican business owner Jeff Belle in his 2026 re-election race.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 52nd District margin of victory
| Vargas, 18+ pts | 92.7% | |
| Vargas, 21+ pts | 85.6% | |
| Vargas, 24+ pts | – | |
| Vargas, 27+ pts | 61.0% | |
| Vargas, 30+ pts | – | |
| Vargas, 33+ pts | 31.0% | |
| Vargas, 36+ pts | 19.0% | |
| Vargas, 39+ pts | 9.3% | |
| Vargas, 42+ pts | 5.0% | |
| Vargas, 45+ pts | 3.7% | |
| Vargas, 48+ pts | 3.2% |
CA-52 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | – | |
| Democrat 0-10% | – | |
| Democrat 10-15% | – | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 4.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | – | |
| Democrat 25-30% | – | |
| Democrat 30-35% | – | |
| Democrat 35-40% | – | |
| Democrat 40%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Juan Vargas: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.5% · $1.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Juan Vargas: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 97.4% · $25.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Juan Vargas
If the House member sworn in for CA-52 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
