nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

FL-01 House 2026

96.3% RJimmy Patronis leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
95.5%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
1.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-01 House.

  1. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte
  2. Florida National Guard Is Stretched To The Brink: Lawmakers Say It’s Time To Grow

    Lawmakers emphasized that recruiting numbers show Florida has the capacity to expand.

    Tampa Free PressPatronisRutherfordBean
  3. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz Accused of Sex Trafficking in Lawsuit, Denies ‘False’ Allegations

    "I'm still going to be in the fight, but it's going to be from a new perch. I do not intend to join the 119th Congress," he told late conservative pundit Charlie Kirk at the time.

    aol.comPatronis
  4. Matt Gaetz Denies Sex Trafficking Claims in New Federal Lawsuit

    Gay Valimont’s bid for Florida’s 1st Congressional District (FL-01) is noted in connection with the 2025 special election after Jimmy Patronis won the seat in the April 2025 race.

    popwiredaily.comValimont
  5. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz Accused of Sex Trafficking in Lawsuit

    The article notes that Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s former chief financial officer, won a special election for Gaetz’s congressional seat (FL-01) in April 2025, defeating Democratic challenger Gay Valimont.

    usmagazine.comValimont

Jimmy Patronis, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJimmy Patronis 96.3% 95.5% 96.8% 1.3 pts –
DGay Valimont 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Gay Valimont

Democratic

Gay Valimont, a Democratic athletic trainer who was her party's nominee for Florida's 1st congressional district in 2024 and 2025, is again the nominee in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Jimmy Patronis.

Jimmy Patronis

Jimmy Patronis

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 1st congressional district (since 2025)

Jimmy Patronis, a Republican who served as chief financial officer of Florida from 2017 to 2025 and has represented Florida's 1st congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Gay Valimont.

Born 1972 · Panama City, Florida

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.6K contracts

Florida's 1st District margin of victory

Patronis, 17+ pts
88.1%
Patronis, 20+ pts
80.5%
Patronis, 23+ pts
73.0%
Patronis, 26+ pts
61.5%
Patronis, 29+ pts
46.5%
Patronis, 32+ pts
32.5%
Patronis, 35+ pts
19.5%
Patronis, 38+ pts
9.9%
Patronis, 41+ pts
4.4%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.9K traded

FL-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.5%
Republican 0-5%
4.7%
Republican 5-15%
3.1%
Republican 15-20%
4.0%
Republican 20-25%
34.0%
Republican 25-30%
24.5%
Republican 30-35%
–
Republican 35-40%
11.5%
Republican 40-45%
3.9%
Republican 45%+
–
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$118.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jimmy Patronis: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $477 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jimmy Patronis: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 98.7% · $691 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jimmy Patronis

If the House member sworn in for FL-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Florida

  1. Florida Senate (special)R91%
  2. Florida GovernorR79%
  3. FL-02 HouseR92%
  4. FL-03 HouseR95%
  5. FL-04 HouseR86%
  6. FL-05 HouseR93%
  7. FL-06 HouseR97%
  8. FL-07 HouseR65%