US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-02 House.
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Summary tailored to your query about "Austin Rogers" FL-02 House
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAustin Rogers | 92.1% | 92.5% | 91.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| DAmanda Green | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Amanda Green, a Democratic operations manager, is her party's nominee for the open seat in Florida's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Austin Rogers, a former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott.
Austin Rogers, a Republican and former general counsel to U.S. Senator Rick Scott, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Florida's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Amanda Green.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 2nd District margin of victory
| Rogers, 1+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Rogers, 4+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Rogers, 7+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Rogers, 10+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Rogers, 13+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Rogers, 16+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Rogers, 19+ pts | 12.6% | |
| Rogers, 22+ pts | 5.8% | |
| Rogers, 25+ pts | 3.6% |
FL-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 25%+ | 0.9% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 2.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 13.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 28.0% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 33.1% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 14.5% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 7.0% | |
| Democrat 5%+ | 0.1% implied |
Prices which party wins.
Austin Rogers: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 93.0% · $2.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Austin Rogers: Counted · bid 90.2% / ask 93.3% · $2.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Austin Rogers
If the House member sworn in for FL-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
