US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-03 House.
A Republican fundraiser event in Alachua drew notable GOP figures ahead of the general election, including lieutenant governor nominee Bryan Avila (on the ticket with Byron Donalds for governor) and Congresswoman Kat…
CammackRep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKat Cammack | 95.0% | 94.5% | 95.3% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| DSeth Harp | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Kat Cammack, a Republican who has represented Florida's 3rd congressional district since 2021 after serving as deputy chief of staff to Representative Ted Yoho, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Seth Harp.
Seth Harp, a Democratic radio sports show host, is his party's nominee for Florida's 3rd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Kat Cammack in the general election on November 3.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 3rd District margin of victory
| Cammack, 5+ pts | 84.0% | |
| Cammack, 8+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Cammack, 11+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Cammack, 14+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Cammack, 17+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Cammack, 20+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Cammack, 23+ pts | 10.6% | |
| Cammack, 26+ pts | 4.7% | |
| Cammack, 29+ pts | 6.3% implied |
FL-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 6.5% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.3% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 10.1% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 32.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 27.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 18.0% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.7% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 3.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Kat Cammack: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $885 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Kat Cammack: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 96.3% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Kat Cammack
If the House member sworn in for FL-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
