US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-05 House.
Florida has removed President Trump’s personal information from voter files after he cited a new law, with election officials also shielding registration details for about 10 Members of Congress, including Rep.
RutherfordRep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
Lawmakers emphasized that recruiting numbers show Florida has the capacity to expand.
PatronisRutherford
BeanNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJohn Rutherford | 92.8% | 92.5% | 93.1% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| DRachel Grage | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 1.6 pts | – |
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John Rutherford, a Republican who has represented Florida's 5th congressional district since 2017 and earlier served as Duval County sheriff from 2003 to 2015, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Rachel Grage.
Rachel Grage, a Democrat, won her party's 2026 primary for Florida's 5th congressional district with 65.1% of the vote and faces Republican incumbent John Rutherford in the general election on November 3.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 5th District margin of victory
| Rutherford, 5+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Rutherford, 8+ pts | 72.0% | |
| Rutherford, 11+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Rutherford, 14+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Rutherford, 17+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Rutherford, 20+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Rutherford, 23+ pts | 8.8% | |
| Rutherford, 26+ pts | 4.3% | |
| Rutherford, 29+ pts | 5.9% implied |
FL-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 5.1% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 6.7% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 13.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 29.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 25.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 18.4% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.7% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 7.4% |
Prices which party wins.
John Rutherford: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 93.0% · $2.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
John Rutherford: Counted · bid 92.4% / ask 93.8% · $1.5K within 5 pts
Contract shown: John Rutherford
If the House member sworn in for FL-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
