House · 3 November 2026

FL-08 House 2026

94.2% RMike Haridopolos leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 93.8%
Spread: 0.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-08 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Remains of impact that created the Moon may lie deep within Earth

The article discusses new seismic findings related to the Theia impact and the Moon’s origin.

Science.org (Magazine)Just nowJenkins

Friday, Oct 16
Jennifer Jenkins Accuses Mike Haridopolos of Lying to Voters Through Anti-Fraud Pledge · The Floridian
floridianpress.com5h agoJenkins
Wednesday, Oct 14
Love Comes Softly: A New Series Adaptation - Exclusive Cast Reveal and 2027 Premiere (2026)
The article announces a new Love Comes Softly TV series adaptation with a 2027 premiere.

phoenixstjohn.comYesterdayJenkins
UP Faith & Family In Production On New Western Romance Series Love Comes Softly
The press release announces that UP Faith & Family is producing a new western romance series titled Love Comes Softly.

press.upentertainment.comYesterdayJenkins

Mike Haridopolos, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMike Haridopolos	94.2%		94.5%	93.8%	0.8 pts	–
DJennifer Jenkins	4.6%		4.5%	4.8%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Jennifer Jenkins

Democratic

Jennifer Jenkins, a Democrat and former Brevard County school board member, is her party's nominee for Florida's 8th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Mike Haridopolos on November 3.

Full candidate profile →

Mike Haridopolos

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 8th congressional district (since 2025)

Mike Haridopolos, a Republican who has represented Florida's 8th congressional district since 2025 and earlier served as president of the Florida Senate, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Jennifer Jenkins.

Born 1970 · Huntington, New York

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.1K contracts

Florida's 8th District margin of victory

Haridopolos, 1+ pts		93.5%
Haridopolos, 3+ pts		90.0%
Haridopolos, 6+ pts		80.5%
Haridopolos, 9+ pts		65.0%
Haridopolos, 12+ pts		54.0%
Haridopolos, 15+ pts		39.5%
Haridopolos, 18+ pts		27.0%
Haridopolos, 21+ pts		16.0%
Haridopolos, 24+ pts		7.6%
Haridopolos, 27+ pts		7.7% implied
Haridopolos, 30+ pts		5.7% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.2K traded

FL-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		5.5%
Republican 0-5%		17.5%
Republican 5-10%		27.5%
Republican 10-15%		22.5%
Republican 15-20%		6.3%
Republican 20-25%		–
Republican 25-30%		5.3%
Republican 30%+		0.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$61.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Haridopolos: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 94.6% · $9.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi9.3K contracts traded