US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-12 House.
The NPR piece discusses U.S. Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican representing a Miami-area, Latino-majority district (FL-27, in the Miami area; note: current district numbers may shift with redistricting).
Two open congressional seats are also in play near Fort Myers. In Florida’s 19th Congressional District, RepublicanJim Schwartzelis considered the frontrunner against DemocratVictor Ariasfor the seat currently held by…
BilirakisRep. Gus Bilirakis, 63, is another name that has featured in media reports about Guilfoyle’s potential successor.
BilirakisThe article reports on a Florida House district redistricting dispute involving Miami-Dade, with House District 115 (represented by Rep. Omar Blanco) facing a lawsuit alleging gerrymandering.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
ReschenthalerBilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
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BentzKurdianThose capable of fulfilling the role are well known. Republican Rep Gus Bilirakis readily comes to mind, although he plays an extremely valuable role in Greek American relations in the House of Representatives and all…
BilirakisTraffic closed after car crashes into Orange County daycare, hurting 3 children
The article discusses housing affordability becoming a primary issue in Florida’s 20th Congressional District race.
Race: Florida’s 26th Congressional District (FL-26) general election on November 3.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGus Bilirakis | 93.5% | 93.5% | 93.5% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| DKimberly Overman | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 0.8 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Gus Bilirakis, a Republican who entered the U.S. House in 2007 and has represented Florida's 12th congressional district since 2013, faces Democrat Kimberly Overman, a former Hillsborough County commissioner, in 2026.
Kimberly Overman, a Democrat and former Hillsborough County commissioner, is her party's nominee for Florida's 12th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Gus Bilirakis in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 12th District margin of victory
| Bilirakis, 1+ pts | 86.2% | |
| Bilirakis, 4+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Bilirakis, 7+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Bilirakis, 10+ pts | 47.5% | |
| Bilirakis, 13+ pts | 33.5% | |
| Bilirakis, 16+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Bilirakis, 19+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Bilirakis, 22+ pts | 11.8% | |
| Bilirakis, 25+ pts | 4.9% | |
| Bilirakis, 28+ pts | 6.0% implied | |
| Bilirakis, 31+ pts | 5.1% implied | |
| Bilirakis, 34+ pts | 4.7% implied | |
| Bilirakis, 37+ pts | 4.7% implied | |
| Bilirakis, 40+ pts | 4.7% implied | |
| Bilirakis, 43+ pts | 4.6% implied |
Prices which party wins.
Gus Bilirakis: Counted · bid 93.0% / ask 94.0% · $6.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Gus Bilirakis: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 95.0% · $3.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Gus Bilirakis
If the House member sworn in for FL-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
