US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-18 House.
The article reports that the Florida Republican Party filed a lawsuit to block a Libertarian candidate from appearing on the ballot in Congressional District 25, a key House race.
The article covers Florida’s newly drawn congressional map undergoing its first legal challenge, with a focus on how the court’s injunction could impact the fate of the map and, by extension, the U.S.
Traffic closed after car crashes into Orange County daycare, hurting 3 children
The article discusses housing affordability becoming a primary issue in Florida’s 20th Congressional District race.
The article discusses the Florida House race in the 14th District in which Democrat Kathy Castor is defending her seat against challenger Mike Beltran, a lawyer and former Republican state representative.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RScott Franklin | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DCurtis Gibson | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Curtis Gibson, a former Lake Wales city commissioner, is the Democratic nominee for Florida's 18th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Scott Franklin in the November 3 general election.
Scott Franklin, a Republican businessman and Navy veteran who has served in the U.S. House since 2021 and represents Florida's 18th congressional district, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Curtis Gibson.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 18th District margin of victory
| Franklin, 1+ pts | 89.3% | |
| Franklin, 4+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Franklin, 7+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Franklin, 10+ pts | 53.5% | |
| Franklin, 13+ pts | 38.5% | |
| Franklin, 16+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Franklin, 19+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Franklin, 22+ pts | 7.5% | |
| Franklin, 25+ pts | 4.8% | |
| Franklin, 28+ pts | 5.7% implied | |
| Franklin, 31+ pts | 4.8% implied | |
| Franklin, 34+ pts | 4.6% implied |
FL-18 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 4.3% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 8.3% | |
| Republican 5-10% | – | |
| Republican 10-15% | 28.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 16.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 5.7% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 6.5% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 4.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Scott Franklin: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 94.0% · $8.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Scott Franklin: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 95.1% · $2.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Scott Franklin
If the House member sworn in for FL-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
