House · 3 November 2026

FL-24 House 2026

95.7% DOliver Gilbert leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 95.6%
Kalshi: 98.1%
Spread: 2.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.9
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Oliver Gilbert, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DOliver Gilbert	95.7%		95.6%	98.1%	2.5 pts	–
RTe Mayonna Brown	1.4%		1.5%	1.3%	0.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Oliver Gilbert

Democratic Miami-Dade County Commissioner (since 2020)

Oliver Gilbert, a Democrat who has served as a Miami-Dade County commissioner since 2020, is his party's nominee for Florida's open 24th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Mayonna Te Brown.

Born 1972 · Miami Gardens, Florida

Full candidate profile →

Te Mayonna Brown

Republican

Te Mayonna Brown is a Republican candidate for the US House in Florida's 24th congressional district (FL-24) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.4K contracts

Florida's 24th District margin of victory

Gilbert, 29+ pts		96.8%
Gilbert, 32+ pts		95.4%
Gilbert, 35+ pts		93.3%
Gilbert, 38+ pts		85.5%
Gilbert, 41+ pts		75.5%
Gilbert, 44+ pts		63.0%
Gilbert, 47+ pts		47.5%
Gilbert, 50+ pts		33.5%
Gilbert, 53+ pts		20.5%
Gilbert, 56+ pts		9.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.6K traded

FL-24 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		1.0%
Democrat 0-15%		1.4%
Democrat 15-25%		4.4%
Democrat 25-30%		0.5%
Democrat 30-35%		0.8%
Democrat 35-40%		6.0%
Democrat 40-45%		15.5%
Democrat 45-50%		–
Democrat 50-55%		25.0%
Democrat 55%+		19.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$34.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Oliver Gilbert: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 96.7% · $25.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi30.4K contracts traded