nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

FL-25 House 2026

80.0% DJared Moskowitz leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
79.5%
Kalshi
81.0%
Spread
1.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+4.7
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-25 House.

  1. Who is Ahead in Florida's 25th Congressional District?

    Representative Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat who currently represents the 23rd District, is hoping to be elected to this Southern Florida district.

    New York TimesMoskowitz
  2. Palm Beach County voters may have a heavy say in who controls US House

    Askar did not respond to requests for comment but has billed himself as a businessman and ally of Trump - the president endorsed him in the August primary - who promises lower taxes and stronger border security.

    coralspringsflnews.comMoskowitz
  3. What's on my ballot? Voter Guide 2026

    Voters statewide will also decide three constitutional amendments appearing on the Florida ballot.

    WPTVFrankelMoskowitzMartinAdeimyAskarMast

Jared Moskowitz, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJared Moskowitz 80.0% 79.5% 81.0% 1.5 pts –
RScott Singer 19.1% 19.0% 19.5% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-25/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-25">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Jared Moskowitz

Jared Moskowitz

Democratic U.S. Representative for Florida's 23rd congressional district (since 2023)

Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat who has represented Florida's 23rd congressional district in the U.S. House since 2023, is running for the 25th district seat in 2026 against Republican Scott Singer, a former mayor of Boca Raton.

Born 1980 · Coral Springs, Florida

Scott Singer

Republican

Scott Singer, a Republican who served as mayor of Boca Raton from 2018 to 2026, is his party's nominee for Florida's 25th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Moskowitz.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.3K contracts

Florida's 25th District margin of victory

Moskowitz, 1+ pts
71.5%
Moskowitz, 4+ pts
58.5%
Moskowitz, 7+ pts
–
Moskowitz, 10+ pts
30.5%
Moskowitz, 13+ pts
16.5%
Moskowitz, 16+ pts
9.7%
Moskowitz, 19+ pts
4.5%
Moskowitz, 22+ pts
6.8%
implied
Moskowitz, 25+ pts
5.3%
implied
Moskowitz, 28+ pts
1.0%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$36.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jared Moskowitz: Counted · bid 79.0% / ask 80.0% · $3.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi310.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jared Moskowitz: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 82.0% · $1.7K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jared Moskowitz

If the House member sworn in for FL-25 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Florida

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  2. Florida GovernorR79%
  3. FL-01 HouseR96%
  4. FL-02 HouseR92%
  5. FL-03 HouseR95%
  6. FL-04 HouseR86%
  7. FL-05 HouseR93%
  8. FL-06 HouseR97%