House · 3 November 2026

IL-05 House 2026

97.3% DMike Quigley leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.0%
Kalshi: 97.4%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Mike Quigley, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMike Quigley	97.3%		97.0%	97.4%	0.4 pts	–
RTommy Hanson	2.4%		2.2%	2.7%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mike Quigley

Democratic U.S. Representative for Illinois's 5th congressional district (since 2009)

Mike Quigley, a Democrat who has represented Illinois's 5th congressional district since 2009, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Tommy Hanson, a real estate broker.

Born 1958 · Indianapolis

Full candidate profile →

Tommy Hanson

Republican

Tommy Hanson, a Republican real estate broker and perennial candidate, faces Democratic incumbent Mike Quigley in the 2026 election for Illinois's 5th congressional district.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.2K contracts

Illinois's 5th District margin of victory

Quigley, 31+ pts		93.3%
Quigley, 34+ pts		84.0% implied
Quigley, 37+ pts		76.0% implied
Quigley, 40+ pts		73.5%
Quigley, 43+ pts		55.5%
Quigley, 46+ pts		42.5%
Quigley, 49+ pts		26.5%
Quigley, 52+ pts		15.0%
Quigley, 55+ pts		5.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.2K traded

IL-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.2% implied
Democrat 0-20%		0.2%
Democrat 20-30%		2.1%
Democrat 30-35%		1.9%
Democrat 35-40%		4.5%
Democrat 40-45%		14.0%
Democrat 45-50%		31.5%
Democrat 50-55%		32.2%
Democrat 55-60%		–
Democrat 60%+		1.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Quigley: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 97.2% · $990 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.5K contracts traded