US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MI-03 House.
The article notes that Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten of Michigan’s 3rd District has withheld her endorsement for a statewide or national candidate, indicating some Democratic resistance within the party in Michigan.
ScholtenThe Fox News article reports that Hasan Piker faced accusations of using an antisemitic trope after discussing a shift in Jewish voters. The piece notes that several Democrats publicly condemned Piker, including Sen.
ScholtenThe article discusses the 2018-2020-era dynamics within the Democratic Party, focusing on figures like El-Sayed as emblematic of a leftward shift.
ScholtenThe article notes Democratic challenges in traditionally blue-leaning districts, including Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District (MI-03).
ScholtenThe piece features Ari Fleischer arguing that Mike Rogers will win Michigan (MI-03) despite polling that favored Democrat Hillary Scholten.
ScholtenNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHillary Scholten | 95.2% | 95.3% | 94.2% | 1.1 pts | – | |
| RTerri DeBoer | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 0.4 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Hillary Scholten, a Democrat and former Justice Department immigration attorney who has represented Michigan's 3rd congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Terri DeBoer, a meteorologist.
Terri DeBoer, a meteorologist, is the Republican nominee for Michigan's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten in the western Michigan seat that includes Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Michigan's 3rd District margin of victory
| Scholten, 4+ pts | 90.3% | |
| Scholten, 7+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Scholten, 10+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Scholten, 13+ pts | 69.5% | |
| Scholten, 16+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Scholten, 19+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Scholten, 22+ pts | 29.0% | |
| Scholten, 25+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Scholten, 28+ pts | 8.5% |
MI-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 3.8% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 26.0% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | – | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 28.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 15.4% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 3.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Hillary Scholten: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 95.8% · $28.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Hillary Scholten: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 94.2% · $3.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Hillary Scholten
If the House member sworn in for MI-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
