House · 3 November 2026

MI-07 House 2026

62.5% DWilliam Lawrence leads TruthIndex™Lean D

Polymarket: 62.5%
Kalshi: 62.5%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

William Lawrence, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DWilliam Lawrence	62.5%		62.5%	62.5%	0.0 pts	–
RTom Barrett	36.6%		36.0%	37.5%	1.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/mi-07/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-mi-07">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Tom Barrett

Republican U.S. Representative for Michigan's 7th congressional district (since 2025)

Tom Barrett, a Republican and U.S. Army veteran who has represented Michigan's 7th congressional district since 2025, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat William Lawrence, co-founder of the Sunrise Movement.

Born 1981 · Southfield, Michigan

Full candidate profile →

William Lawrence

Democratic

William Lawrence, a Democrat and co-founder of the climate action organization Sunrise Movement, is his party's 2026 nominee for Michigan's 7th congressional district, challenging Republican incumbent Tom Barrett in the Lansing-area seat.

Madison, Wisconsin

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi12.7K contracts

Michigan's 7th District margin of victory

Barrett, 1+ pts		37.5%
Barrett, 2+ pts		25.5%
Barrett, 5+ pts		15.5%
Barrett, 8+ pts		7.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi12.8K contracts

Michigan's 7th District margin of victory

Lawrence, 1+ pts		56.5%
Lawrence, 4+ pts		41.5%
Lawrence, 7+ pts		27.5%
Lawrence, 10+ pts		16.5%
Lawrence, 13+ pts		7.9%
Lawrence, 16+ pts		4.1%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.8K traded

MI-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		3.7%
Republican 9-12%		2.5%
Republican 6-9%		4.3%
Republican 3-6%		7.4%
Republican 0-3%		20.0%
Democrat 0-3%		23.5%
Democrat 3-6%		26.5%
Democrat 6-9%		15.6%
Democrat 9-12%		5.4%
Democrat 12%+		3.3%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$38.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

William Lawrence: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $58.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi86.9K contracts traded