nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MI-08 House 2026

93.9% DKristen McDonald Rivet leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
94.5%
Kalshi
93.8%
Spread
0.7 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MI-08 House.

  1. Will Lawrence, Christina Hines, Sean McCann outraise GOP US House rivals

    Bergman, a senior member of the House Armed Services panel, brought in $395,800 and reported about $563,500 cash on hand.

    Detroit NewsRivet
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    Iowa Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek is seen at the Farm Progress Show on Sept. 1, 2026, in Boone, Iowa.

    USA TodayRivet

Kristen McDonald Rivet, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DKristen McDonald Rivet 93.9% 94.5% 93.8% 0.7 pts –
RThomas Smith 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 0.4 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/mi-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-mi-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Kristen McDonald Rivet

Kristen McDonald Rivet

Democratic U.S. Representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district (since 2025)

Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat who has represented Michigan's 8th congressional district since 2025 and previously served in the Michigan Senate, is running for re-election in 2026 against Republican Thomas Smith.

Born 1970 · Portland, Michigan

Thomas Smith

Republican

Thomas Smith, a Republican retired engineer who suspended his primary campaign yet won the nomination, is his party's 2026 nominee in Michigan's 8th congressional district against Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi5.6K contracts

Michigan's 8th District margin of victory

Yes
4.2%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi4.1K contracts

Michigan's 8th District margin of victory

Rivet, 2+ pts
95.5%
Rivet, 5+ pts
94.0%
Rivet, 8+ pts
87.9%
Rivet, 11+ pts
74.0%
Rivet, 14+ pts
65.0%
Rivet, 17+ pts
51.0%
Rivet, 20+ pts
36.0%
Rivet, 23+ pts
23.0%
Rivet, 26+ pts
11.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.3K traded

MI-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
1.1%
Democrat 0-5%
4.1%
Democrat 5-10%
2.8%
Democrat 10-15%
–
Democrat 15-20%
27.5%
Democrat 20-25%
27.0%
Democrat 25-30%
7.5%
Democrat 30%+
0.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$26.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Kristen McDonald Rivet: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $250 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi10.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Kristen McDonald Rivet: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 95.5% · $975 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Kristen McDonald Rivet

If the House member sworn in for MI-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Michigan

  1. Michigan SenateD69%
  2. Michigan GovernorD94%
  3. MI-01 HouseR89%
  4. MI-02 HouseR97%
  5. MI-03 HouseD95%
  6. MI-04 HouseR51%
  7. MI-05 HouseR95%
  8. MI-06 HouseD98%