nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MI-01 House 2026

88.8% RJack Bergman leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
88.5%
Kalshi
89.0%
Spread
0.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.7
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MI-01 House.

  1. Electoral power - The Mining Journal

    I believe the Trenary Clinic closed because of the cuts to Medicaid in the July 2024 "Big Beautiful Bill." Our U.S.

    The Mining JournalBergman
  2. Democrats outraise GOP hopefuls in key Michigan U.S. House races

    Hines more than doubled the haul of her Republican opponent Michael Bouchard of Rochester Hills, who reported nearly $942,600 in receipts. Both candidates finished the quarter with about $1.4 million in cash on hand.

    Belleville News-DemocratBarr
  3. While Jack Bergman wants to keep rubber stamping ...

    Jack Bergman in MI-01 (Trump+21 in 2024) is going negative on his Democratic opponent, Callie Barr, labeling her "Crooked Callie" and tying her to AOC

    ThreadsSocial postBergmanAlso in www.facebook.com, Instagram
  4. Washington Politician Jack Bergman is seeing the bottom ...

    Bergman currently represents Michigan's 1st Congressional District which includes Gogebic and Ontonagon County. The House of Representatives has now been

    www.facebook.comSocial postBergman
  5. Barr makes second attempt to win Northern Michigan's seat in Congress

    And so, that is also very concerning that we don't have a military that's at its full capacity and full military readiness to do the job that they're over there being asked to do.

    wcmu.orgBarr

Jack Bergman, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJack Bergman 88.8% 88.5% 89.0% 0.5 pts –
DCallie Barr 11.1% 10.7% 11.3% 0.6 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Callie Barr

Democratic

Callie Barr, a lawyer and the Democratic nominee for Michigan's 1st congressional district in 2024, is again her party's nominee in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Jack Bergman in the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan seat.

Jack Bergman

Jack Bergman

Republican U.S. Representative for Michigan's 1st congressional district (since 2017)

Jack Bergman, a Republican and retired Marine Corps lieutenant general who has represented Michigan's 1st congressional district since 2017, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Callie Barr, a lawyer and his 2024 opponent.

Born 1947 · Shakopee, Minnesota

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi40.7K contracts

Michigan's 1st District margin of victory

Bergman, 1+ pts
88.4%
Bergman, 4+ pts
77.5%
Bergman, 7+ pts
67.5%
Bergman, 10+ pts
56.0%
Bergman, 13+ pts
44.0%
Bergman, 16+ pts
31.5%
Bergman, 19+ pts
21.5%
Bergman, 22+ pts
12.8%
Bergman, 25+ pts
6.9%
Bergman, 28+ pts
4.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.5K traded

MI-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+
4.5%
Republican 20-25%
7.0%
Republican 15-20%
25.5%
Republican 10-15%
28.0%
Republican 5-10%
28.5%
Republican 0-5%
3.7%
Democrat 0-5%
2.5%
Democrat 5%+
2.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jack Bergman: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 89.0% · $18.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi24.5K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jack Bergman: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 90.0% · $27.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jack Bergman

If the House member sworn in for MI-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Michigan

  1. Michigan SenateD69%
  2. Michigan GovernorD94%
  3. MI-02 HouseR97%
  4. MI-03 HouseD95%
  5. MI-04 HouseR51%
  6. MI-05 HouseR95%
  7. MI-06 HouseD98%
  8. MI-07 HouseD63%