US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MI-05 House.
The article covers Michigan state elections with a focus on rival campaigns in the state House races, including ads and messaging battles between candidates such as Bouchard, Hines, McDonald Rivet, Smith, and California.
The article discusses Michigan House 2026 watchlist updates, including shakeups and new additions.
McKinneyVukasovichThe article reports that two Michigan congressional candidates, Waters and Ogburn, were disqualified from their respective U.S. House races.
Topic: Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (SW Michigan) race, with incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga facing challenger Fritz McCann as a key battleground for control of the U.S. House.
The article examines the Ann Arbor District 23 House race between Democrat Jason Morgan and Republican Miriam Corvino, focusing on affordability and related policy approaches.
McKinneyVukasovichNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTim Walberg | 94.9% | 95.0% | 94.9% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| DChristian Vukasovich | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 0.9 pts | – |
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Christian Vukasovich, a college professor, is the Democratic nominee for Michigan's 5th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Tim Walberg in the southern Michigan seat along the Indiana and Ohio borders.
Tim Walberg, a Republican and former Michigan state legislator who has represented Michigan's 5th congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Christian Vukasovich, a college professor.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Michigan's 5th District margin of victory
| Walberg, 13+ pts | 86.5% | |
| Walberg, 16+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Walberg, 19+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Walberg, 22+ pts | 53.5% | |
| Walberg, 25+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Walberg, 28+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Walberg, 31+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Walberg, 34+ pts | 13.6% | |
| Walberg, 37+ pts | 8.5% |
MI-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 6.0% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 0.8% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 3.2% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 25.9% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 32.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 23.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 7.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 3.1% | |
| Republican 40%+ | 0.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Tim Walberg: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 95.0% · $3.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Tim Walberg: Counted · bid 93.3% / ask 96.5% · $2.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Tim Walberg
If the House member sworn in for MI-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
