nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MI-10 House 2026

64.8% DChristina Hines leads TruthIndex™Lean D
Polymarket
64.5%
Kalshi
65.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MI-10 House.

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Christina Hines, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DChristina Hines 64.8% 64.5% 65.5% 1.0 pts –
RMike Bouchard 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 0.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Christina Hines

Democratic

Christina Hines, a Democratic prosecutor, is her party's nominee for the open seat in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2026 against Republican Mike Bouchard, an Army National Guard captain.

Mike Bouchard

Republican

Mike Bouchard, a Republican Army National Guard captain and son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Christina Hines.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi20.0K contracts

Michigan's 10th District margin of victory

Bouchard, 1+ pts
29.5%
Bouchard, 4+ pts
17.5%
Bouchard, 7+ pts
8.7%
Bouchard, 10+ pts
4.7%
Bouchard, 13+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi4.0K contracts

Michigan's 10th District margin of victory

Hines, 2+ pts
65.0%
Hines, 5+ pts
48.5%
Hines, 8+ pts
32.5%
Hines, 11+ pts
19.5%
Hines, 14+ pts
10.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.0K traded

MI-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6%+
14.0%
Republican 3-6%
10.0%
Republican 0-3%
18.5%
Democrat 0-3%
21.5%
Democrat 3-6%
21.0%
Democrat 6-9%
15.5%
Democrat 9-12%
2.4%
Democrat 12-15%
2.6%
Democrat 15-18%
2.9%
Democrat 18%+
2.2%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$9.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Christina Hines: Counted · bid 64.0% / ask 65.0% · $74.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi24.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Christina Hines: Counted · bid 65.0% / ask 66.0% · $26.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Christina Hines

If the House member sworn in for MI-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Michigan

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  2. Michigan GovernorD94%
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  4. MI-02 HouseR97%
  5. MI-03 HouseD95%
  6. MI-04 HouseR51%
  7. MI-05 HouseR95%
  8. MI-06 HouseD98%