US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MI-04 House.
The page is a general election overview for Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (not Georgia’s GA-04). It profiles incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga, who is seeking re-election to a eighth term.
Topic: Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (SW Michigan) race, with incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga facing challenger Fritz McCann as a key battleground for control of the U.S. House.
Bill Huizenga (R) represents Michigan’s 4th Congressional District. The district includes Allegan and Van Buren counties and portions of Berrien, Calhoun, Kalamazoo, and Ottawa counties.
HuizengaCampaign event in Kalamazoo features Pete Buttigieg endorsing Democratic state Senator Sean McCann in Michigan's 4th Congressional District race against incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga.
HuizengaThe MI-04 race in Michigan (Sean McCann vs. incumbent Bill Huizenga) is intensifying, with Cook Political Report moving the contest to Toss-Up.
HuizengaNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBill Huizenga | 51.2% | 50.5% | 53.0% | 2.5 pts | – | |
| DSean McCann | 48.2% | 48.5% | 47.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Bill Huizenga, a Republican who has represented Michigan in the U.S. House since 2011 and the 4th congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Sean McCann, a state senator.
Sean McCann, a Democrat who has served in the Michigan Senate since 2019 and represents the 19th district, is his party's 2026 nominee for Michigan's 4th congressional district against Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Michigan's 4th District margin of victory
| Huizenga, 2+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Huizenga, 5+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Huizenga, 8+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Huizenga, 11+ pts | 9.6% | |
| Huizenga, 14+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Huizenga, 17+ pts | 6.2% implied |
Michigan's 4th District margin of victory
| McCann, 1+ pts | 40.5% | |
| McCann, 4+ pts | 24.5% | |
| McCann, 7+ pts | 15.5% | |
| McCann, 10+ pts | 6.4% |
MI-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 5.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 11.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | – | |
| Republican 3-6% | – | |
| Republican 0-3% | 25.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 19.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | – | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 14.0% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 5.4% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Bill Huizenga: Counted · bid 50.0% / ask 51.0% · $77.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Bill Huizenga: Counted · bid 52.0% / ask 54.0% · $28.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bill Huizenga
If the House member sworn in for MI-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
