nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Michigan Senate 2026

68.5% DAbdul El-Sayed leads TruthIndex™Lean D
Polymarket
68.5%
Kalshi
68.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Michigan Senate.

  1. Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers called El ...

    Mike Rogers, a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, delivers a speech criticizing his opponent, Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers characterizes El-Sayed as an

    www.facebook.comSocial postRogers
  2. Why AOC was in a deep-red part of Michigan: From the Politics Desk

    “What we do is that we break open the entire political calculus in America: period,” Ocasio-Cortez said at a New York fundraiser this month.

    NBC NewsEl-Sayed
  3. Michigan Senate race: Political heavyweights campaign for Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers

    Get fact-based, unbiased political coveragefrom the NewsNation team ahead of the 2026 elections.Get 24/7 news coverage with the NewsNation app. Not sure how to find NewsNation on your TV?Find your channel here.

    NewsNationRogers
  4. Watch former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and ...

    A reporter promotes an upcoming televised U.S. Senate debate in Michigan between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The segment explains the

    www.facebook.comSocial postRogers
  5. El-Sayed again denies ties to Muslim Brotherhood

    “I wasn’t raised by my mother,” El-Sayed said in response to past social media posts that suggest his mother was active in the Islamist movement in the 1970s.

    Washington PostEl-Sayed
More coverage 12
  1. UAW members recall tense encounters with Mike Rogers ...

    As Mike Rogers courts Michigan voters in his bid for the open U.S. Senate seat, members of Michigan's largest union describe a strained relationship with

    Michigan AdvanceRogers
  2. Some Republicans in key races break with Trump over tariffs

    IE 11 is not supported. For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser.

    NBC NewsEl-Sayed
  3. ‘The dog has caught the car’: Why AOC is campaigning in Michigan’s Trump country

    This won’t be El-Sayed’s first foray into conservative turf. On Monday, he posted a video on X from an event in Ionia County, which, he noted, is an R plus-32 area.

    ms.nowEl-Sayed
  4. Abdul El-Sayed grows agitated with reporter after being pressed on family's alleged Muslim Brotherhood ties

    NBC's Tom Llamas grilled Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed over the growing controversy over his family's alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.

    Fox NewsEl-Sayed
  5. Mike Rogers dismisses criticism he’d be ‘rubber stamp’ for Trump in Senate

    Mike Rogers, a Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, pushes back against claims that he would be a “rubber stamp” for President Trump’s agenda. In an interview with Tom Llamas on NBC Nightly News (Oct.

    NBC NewsRogers
  6. Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers on whether Iran war was a mistake: ‘We’ll find out’

    Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers discussed the Michigan Senate race with NBC News. They covered Iran policy, the economy, and issues shaping the contest less than a month before Election Day.

    NBC NewsRogersEl-Sayed
  7. Abdul El-Sayed battles politics, Islamophobia in run for U.S. Senate

    Abdul El-Sayed is a 41-year-old Michigan Democrat who ran for the U.S. Senate. A Rhodes Scholar with an Ivy League medical degree, he has led health departments in Detroit and Wayne County, and is a former public health…

    Lansing State JournalEl-Sayed
  8. Is Abdul El-Sayed a doctor? Fact-checking Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate race

    PolitiFact fact-checks a claim about Abdul El-Sayed’s medical credentials in the context of the Michigan U.S. Senate race against Mike Rogers.

    PolitifactEl-Sayed
  9. NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas visits Detroit as Michigan Senate race draws national attention

    Mike Rogers is the Republican candidate in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race being contested against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

    WDIVRogers
  10. Fact check: Did Mike Rogers buy two yachts after leaving Congress?

    Democrat Abdul El-Sayed accused Rogers of buying two yachts after leaving Congress.

    Bridge MichiganRogers
  11. Inside Michigan’s critical midterm Senate battle

    NBC Nightly News covers Michigan’s high-stakes midterm Senate race, featuring interviews with candidates Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Mike Rogers (R), as well as Michigan voters. The segment, anchored by Tom Llamas on Oct.

    NBC NewsRogersEl-Sayed
  12. Senate Candidate Abdul El-Sayed says Israel and Iran both threat to U.S.

    Abdul El-Sayed, a Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, weighs in on national security concerns, arguing that both Israel and Iran pose threats to the United States.

    NBC NewsEl-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DAbdul El-Sayed 68.5% 68.5% 68.5% 0.0 pts –
RMike Rogers 31.6% 30.5% 32.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/michigan/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-michigan">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed

Democratic Host of the podcast America Dissected (since 2019)

Abdul El-Sayed is an epidemiologist and former Detroit and Wayne County health director who won Michigan's 2026 Democratic primary for an open U.S. Senate seat.

Born 1984 · Rochester Hills, Michigan
Mike Rogers

Mike Rogers

Republican

Former FBI agent and Republican U.S. representative from Michigan (2001 to 2015), the Republican nominee for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026.

Born 1963 · Livonia, Michigan

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi42.1K contracts

Michigan Senate margin of victory

Rogers, 1+ pts
30.0%
Rogers, 3+ pts
14.0%
Rogers, 5+ pts
7.2%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi359.3K contracts

Michigan Senate margin of victory

Sayed, 1+ pts
66.0%
Sayed, 3+ pts
42.0%
Sayed, 5+ pts
23.0%
Sayed, 7+ pts
10.1%
Sayed, 9+ pts
6.6%
Sayed, 11+ pts
5.1%
Sayed, 13+ pts
3.2%
Sayed, 15+ pts
2.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.2K traded

Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory

El-Sayed 12%+
4.1%
El-Sayed 9-12%
7.6%
El-Sayed 6-9%
14.5%
El-Sayed 3-6%
25.0%
El-Sayed 0-3%
23.5%
Rogers 0-3%
16.0%
Rogers 3-6%
3.5%
Rogers 6-9%
3.7%
Rogers 9-12%
1.1%
Rogers 12%+
0.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$1.7M traded

Prices which party wins.

Abdul El-Sayed: Counted · bid 68.0% / ask 69.0% · $74.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.3M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Abdul El-Sayed: Counted · bid 68.0% / ask 69.0% · $173.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Abdul El-Sayed

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

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