nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MI-06 House 2026

97.6% DDebbie Dingell leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.3%
Kalshi
98.0%
Spread
0.7 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MI-06 House.

  1. Dingell on if Israel Is a Threat: 'I Believe Israel Has a Right to Exist' 'So, There Are Tweaks, Probably' to El-Sayed's View

    Debbie Dingell (MI-06) says she supports Israel’s right to exist and views a nuclear Iran as a major global threat.

    breitbart.comDingell
  2. Judge to MIGOP on 63rd House: Your plan to replace DeBoyer breaks the law

    The article, titled “Judge to MIGOP on 63rd House: Your plan to replace DeBoyer breaks the law,” discusses actions related to the 63rd Michigan House District.

    pro.stateaffairs.comSmiley
  3. MEA Endorses Brink, McKinney, Greimel for U.S. House

    The article reports that the Michigan Education Association (MEA) endorsed candidates for the U.S. House.

    pro.stateaffairs.comSmileyMcKinney
  4. Michigan House Candidates Clash Over Crime, EV Mandates

    The article covers Michigan state elections with a focus on rival campaigns in the state House races, including ads and messaging battles between candidates such as Bouchard, Hines, McDonald Rivet, Smith, and California.

    pro.stateaffairs.comSmileyVukasovich
  5. Press Release: Moolenaar Announces Additional Michigan Support for PACE Expansion Legislation

    Moolenaar announces support for PACE bill: Rep. John Moolenaar said he has added Michigan support for his bipartisan PACE Expanded Act, co-sponsored with Rep. Debbie Dingell.

    Quiver QuantitativeMoolenaarDingell
More coverage 4
  1. Press Release: Jahana Hayes, Debbie Dingell Introduce Bill on School Response to Sexual Assault Reports

    Topic: U.S. Representatives Jahana Hayes (CT-05) and Debbie Dingell introduced the "Title IX Take Responsibility Act," a bill to hold schools more accountable for how they handle reports of sexual assault and harassment.

    Quiver QuantitativeDingellHayes
  2. High Court Considers Extent of National Environmental Policy Act reviews when Other Laws May Apply

    Topic: United States Supreme Court consideration of how National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) reviews interact with other federal environmental statutes.

    enr.comHuffmanDingell
  3. 10 races to watch: Democrats, Republicans battle for Michigan Legislature

    The article discusses the battle for control of the Michigan House ahead of 2024 elections, highlighting targeted districts where Republicans and Democrats see chances to gain or defend seats.

    Bridge MichiganSmileyMcKinney
  4. AHA Voices Support for 340B Rebate Model Delay Act (H.R. 10770)

    This AHA letter addresses U.S. Representatives Rob Bresnahan and Debbie Dingell (MI-06) in opposition to delaying the 340B rebate model reform, arguing for timely implementation of the 340B changes rather than…

    aha.orgDingell

Debbie Dingell, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DDebbie Dingell 97.6% 97.3% 98.0% 0.7 pts –
RHeather Smiley 2.2% 2.0% 2.4% 0.4 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Debbie Dingell

Debbie Dingell

Democratic U.S. Representative for Michigan's 6th congressional district (since 2023)

Debbie Dingell, a Democrat who has represented Michigan in the U.S. House since 2015 and the 6th congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Heather Smiley, her 2024 opponent.

Born 1953

Heather Smiley

Republican

Heather Smiley, an office analyst and the Republican nominee for Michigan's 6th congressional district in 2024, is again her party's nominee in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Debbie Dingell in the Ann Arbor-centered seat.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.3K contracts

Michigan's 6th District margin of victory

Dingell, 20+ pts
94.8%
Dingell, 23+ pts
84.5%
Dingell, 26+ pts
74.0%
Dingell, 29+ pts
63.5%
Dingell, 32+ pts
53.0%
Dingell, 35+ pts
42.5%
Dingell, 38+ pts
32.0%
Dingell, 41+ pts
22.0%
Dingell, 44+ pts
11.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.4K traded

MI-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
Democrat 0-10%
0.5%
Democrat 10-20%
4.5%
Democrat 20-25%
2.8%
Democrat 25-30%
15.2%
Democrat 30-35%
21.2%
Democrat 35-40%
30.3%
Democrat 40-45%
–
Democrat 45-50%
5.8%
Democrat 50%+
0.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$53.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Debbie Dingell: Counted · bid 95.6% / ask 99.0% · $715 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Debbie Dingell: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 99.6% · $641 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Debbie Dingell

If the House member sworn in for MI-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Michigan

  1. Michigan SenateD69%
  2. Michigan GovernorD94%
  3. MI-01 HouseR89%
  4. MI-02 HouseR97%
  5. MI-03 HouseD95%
  6. MI-04 HouseR51%
  7. MI-05 HouseR95%
  8. MI-07 HouseD63%