US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for MI-12 House.
The piece discusses mounting macro headwinds for the chemical industry, highlighting that even major players like BASF and Bayer face systemic pressures beyond pure competitive concerns.
The article argues that FMC’s warnings signal broader headwinds for agricultural chemicals, with spillover effects for the entire chemical industry, including rivals like BASF and Bayer.
James Hooper identifies potential contenders to replace Walsh as Australia's fullback in the Rugby League World Cup 2026.
The article reports skeptical reception from institutional investors regarding BASF’s strategic considerations, specifically the potential acquisition of Evonik.
James Hooper (Bernstein) maintained a Hold rating on Arkema and issued a EUR 65.00 price target as of October 14, 2026.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRashida Tlaib | 98.7% | 98.0% | 99.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RJames Hooper | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
James Hooper, a Republican tradesman who was his party's 2024 nominee for the seat, is again the Republican nominee in Michigan's 12th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Rashida Tlaib.
Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House from Michigan since 2019 and represents the 12th congressional district, is running for re-election in 2026 against Republican James Hooper.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Michigan's 12th District margin of victory
| Tlaib, 34+ pts | 96.6% | |
| Tlaib, 37+ pts | 95.3% | |
| Tlaib, 40+ pts | – | |
| Tlaib, 43+ pts | – | |
| Tlaib, 46+ pts | 66.5% | |
| Tlaib, 49+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Tlaib, 52+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Tlaib, 55+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Tlaib, 58+ pts | 5.9% |
MI-12 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 0-25% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 25-35% | 3.6% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 11.3% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 2.5% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 31.0% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | – | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 23.5% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 65%+ | 4.8% |
Prices which party wins.
Rashida Tlaib: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 98.4% · $323 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Rashida Tlaib: Counted · bid 98.3% / ask 99.7% · $654 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Rashida Tlaib
If the House member sworn in for MI-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
