US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for NC-11 House.
No Going Back PAC, an offshoot of Trump's super PAC MAGA Inc., sent out a mailer targeting Jamie Ager, the Democrat running in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, for being "open to large AI data centers,"…
The article covers former President Donald Trump appearing on stage in North Carolina to endorse two candidates, Laurie Buckhout and Jennifer Balkcom, at a rally held on September 16, 2026, at the Gastonia Municipal…
BalkcomThe article reports that Fairfield police arrested a man suspected of vandalizing campaign signs for local elections.
BalkcomNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJamie Ager | 77.2% | 75.5% | 77.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| RJennifer Balkcom | 23.7% | 24.5% | 23.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Jamie Ager, a farmer and grandson of former U.S. representative Jamie Clarke, is the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 11th congressional district in 2026 against Republican state representative Jennifer Balkcom.
Jennifer Balkcom, a Republican member of the North Carolina House of Representatives since 2023, is her party's replacement nominee for the 11th congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Jamie Ager.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory
| Balkcom, 2+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Balkcom, 5+ pts | 8.9% | |
| Balkcom, 8+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Balkcom, 11+ pts | 3.8% | |
| Balkcom, 14+ pts | 5.1% implied | |
| Balkcom, 17+ pts | 1.7% implied |
North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory
| Ager, 1+ pts | 69.5% | |
| Ager, 4+ pts | 53.0% | |
| Ager, 7+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Ager, 10+ pts | 26.5% | |
| Ager, 13+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Ager, 16+ pts | 7.6% |
NC-11 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 0.6% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 1.8% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 2.1% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 16.1% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 20.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 19.5% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 13.8% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 12.5% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 6.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Jamie Ager: Counted · bid 75.0% / ask 76.0% · $10.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jamie Ager: Counted · bid 77.0% / ask 78.0% · $55.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jamie Ager
If the House member sworn in for NC-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
