House · 3 November 2026

NC-04 House 2026

97.4% DValerie Foushee leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.3%
Kalshi: 97.6%
Spread: 0.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Valerie Foushee, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DValerie Foushee	97.4%		97.3%	97.6%	0.3 pts	–
RMax Ganorkar	2.7%		2.8%	2.4%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Max Ganorkar

Republican

Max Ganorkar, a Republican home building contractor and perennial candidate, is his party's nominee for North Carolina's 4th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Valerie Foushee.

Full candidate profile →

Valerie Foushee

Democratic U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 4th congressional district (since 2023)

Valerie Foushee, a Democrat who has represented North Carolina's 4th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Max Ganorkar after defeating Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in the Democratic primary.

Born 1956 · Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

North Carolina's 4th District margin of victory

Foushee, 37+ pts		96.4%
Foushee, 40+ pts		96.1%
Foushee, 43+ pts		–
Foushee, 46+ pts		90.5%
Foushee, 49+ pts		81.5%
Foushee, 52+ pts		67.5%
Foushee, 55+ pts		49.5%
Foushee, 58+ pts		30.5%
Foushee, 61+ pts		16.0%
Foushee, 64+ pts		5.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.5K traded

NC-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1%
Democrat 0-20%		0.1%
Democrat 20-30%		2.7%
Democrat 30-35%		1.6%
Democrat 35-40%		0.1%
Democrat 40-45%		4.3%
Democrat 45-50%		11.1%
Democrat 50-55%		28.0%
Democrat 55-60%		31.5%
Democrat 60%+		21.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$84.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Valerie Foushee: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 99.1% · $960 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi685 contracts traded