nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NC-12 House 2026

96.5% DAlma Adams leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.9%
Kalshi
97.5%
Spread
1.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-12 House.

  1. House District 12 race pits incumbent Griffith against Pickering

    The race for Delaware House District 12 features incumbent Democrat Krista Griffith and Republican Steve Pickering.

    Delaware OnlineCodiga
  2. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  3. The Political Beat Candidate Guide: North Carolina House District 82

    The article is a candidate guide for North Carolina House District 82 (parts of Concord and Harrisburg) from WSOC’s Political Beat.

    WSOCCodigaLancia
  4. Profiling U.S. House candidates

    The article is the first in a candidate profile series by Capital Tonight focusing on the open U.S. House seat in North Carolina after Rep. Chuck Edwards did not seek re-election.

    Spectrum Local NewsCodigaHubbard
  5. NC House District 105: Republican Tricia Cotham, Democrat Ken McCool

    Topic: NC House District 105 race between Republican Tricia Cotham (incumbent) and Democrat Ken McCool.

    WCNCCodigaHubbard
More coverage 4
  1. North Carolina Early Voting Is Officially Underway: Here Are the Biggest Races Voters Will See

    Alma Adams (D) represents North Carolina’s 12th Congressional District. In the NC-12 race highlighted, she faces Republican challenger Jack Codiga.

    charlottestories.comWatsonAdams
  2. What Mecklenburg County voters need to know in 2026

    Colby Watson is the Democratic candidate running in North Carolina House District 8 (NC-08), which includes a large portion of Mecklenburg County.

    Charlotte ObserverWatsonAdams
  3. Martin Henson: A Raleigh death evokes strong emotions for the Black community

    The Beacon Media NC article discusses the strong emotional impact of a Raleigh death on the Black community, highlighting national concern over racially charged deaths. It notes that U.S. Rep.

    beaconmedianc.orgAdams
  4. Could there be upsets in Charlotte congressional races?

    Alma Adams (D) is the incumbent U.S. Representative for North Carolina’s 12th District (Charlotte-centered). In 2024 she won reelection with about 74% of the vote.

    Charlotte ObserverAdamsMcDowell

Alma Adams, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DAlma Adams 96.5% 95.9% 97.5% 1.6 pts –
RJack Codiga 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-12/embed.html" title="NC-12 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-12/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-12">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-12/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-12"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-12/card-landscape.png" alt="NC-12 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Alma Adams

Alma Adams

Democratic U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 12th congressional district (since 2014)

Alma Adams, a Democrat who has represented North Carolina's 12th congressional district since 2014, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Jack Codiga, a financial executive.

Born 1946 · High Point, North Carolina

Jack Codiga

Republican

Jack Codiga, a financial executive, is the Republican nominee for North Carolina's 12th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Alma Adams in the November general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi376 contracts

North Carolina's 12th District margin of victory

Adams, 38+ pts
96.2%
Adams, 41+ pts
96.7%
Adams, 44+ pts
95.8%
Adams, 47+ pts
91.9%
Adams, 50+ pts
82.0%
Adams, 53+ pts
65.5%
Adams, 56+ pts
46.5%
Adams, 59+ pts
27.5%
Adams, 62+ pts
12.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.9K traded

NC-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
Democrat 0-25%
4.0%
Democrat 25-35%
4.2%
Democrat 35-40%
5.0%
Democrat 40-45%
6.7%
Democrat 45-50%
11.0%
Democrat 50-55%
26.6%
Democrat 55-60%
32.6%
Democrat 60-65%
5.3%
Democrat 65%+
5.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$66.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Alma Adams: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 97.4% · $806 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Alma Adams: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 99.7% · $444 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Alma Adams

If the House member sworn in for NC-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in North Carolina

  1. North Carolina SenateD95%
  2. NC-01 HouseD67%
  3. NC-02 HouseD99%
  4. NC-03 HouseR84%
  5. NC-04 HouseD97%
  6. NC-05 HouseR87%
  7. NC-06 HouseR90%
  8. NC-07 HouseR86%