nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NJ-11 House 2026

96.0% DAnalilia Mejia leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.5%
Kalshi
96.6%
Spread
1.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NJ-11 House.

Top story

ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  1. What midterms could mean for Realtors and the housing market

    In New Jersey, Democrat Rachel Peace has proposed revisiting eligibility thresholds for first-time homebuyer programs in her District 4 House race.

    housingwire.comHathaway
  2. CAIR-NJ Celebrates 20th Annual North Jersey Banquet with Congressional Proclamation and Civil Rights Leaders

    Analilia Mejia, the Congresswoman who presented a proclamation recognizing CAIR-NJ at its 20th annual North Jersey Banquet.

    cair.comMejia
  3. New Jerseyans to start midterm elections next week. What to know

    District 7 (Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren)- Incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. (R); Rebecca Bennett (D); Seamus O'Toole (Stop Israel's Genocide Party).

    The Asbury Park PressMcIverHathawayPallone
  4. Two Democrats, one vote: Joe Hathaway for Congress

    We are two lifelong Democrats and Essex County neighbors, one in North Caldwell, the other in Fairfield. One of us served 18 years as Democratic leader in

    njjewishnews.timesofisrael.comHathaway
  5. Two Democrats, one vote: Joe Hathaway for Congress - The Jewish Standard

    Summary tailored to your query: Analilia Mejia and NJ-11 House race

    jewishstandard.timesofisrael.comMejia
More coverage 1
  1. Reps. Castro, Ciscomani, Espaillat Renew Push to Honor Hispanic-Serving Institutions

    The press release from Rep. Joaquin Castro and fellow cosponsors highlights renewed congressional efforts to recognize and support Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSIs).

    castro.house.govOfficialSalinasMejia

Analilia Mejia, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DAnalilia Mejia 96.0% 95.5% 96.6% 1.1 pts –
RJoe Hathaway 3.9% 3.9% 2.8% 1.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nj-11/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nj-11">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Analilia Mejia

Analilia Mejia

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 11th congressional district (since 2026)

Analilia Mejia, a Democrat and former national political director for Bernie Sanders's 2020 campaign who won New Jersey's 11th district in an April 2026 special election, seeks a full term against Republican Joe Hathaway.

Born 1977 · Elizabeth, New Jersey

Joe Hathaway

Republican

Joe Hathaway, a Republican Randolph Township Council member and former mayor, is the party's nominee for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in 2026, in a rematch with Democratic incumbent Analilia Mejia.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi26 contracts

New Jersey's 11th District margin of victory

Mejia, 8+ pts
94.3%
Mejia, 11+ pts
88.1%
Mejia, 14+ pts
78.5%
Mejia, 17+ pts
67.5%
Mejia, 20+ pts
53.5%
Mejia, 23+ pts
39.5%
Mejia, 26+ pts
26.5%
Mejia, 29+ pts
15.5%
Mejia, 32+ pts
7.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.7K traded

NJ-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
3.9%
Democrat 0-5%
4.6%
Democrat 5-10%
1.6%
Democrat 10-15%
2.9%
Democrat 15-20%
19.5%
Democrat 20-25%
34.5%
Democrat 25-30%
22.3%
Democrat 30-35%
13.0%
Democrat 35%+
3.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$47.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Analilia Mejia: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $1.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi17.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Analilia Mejia: Counted · bid 95.6% / ask 97.7% · $865 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Analilia Mejia

If the House member sworn in for NJ-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New Jersey

  1. New Jersey SenateD97%
  2. NJ-01 HouseD96%
  3. NJ-02 HouseR83%
  4. NJ-03 HouseD97%
  5. NJ-04 HouseR97%
  6. NJ-05 HouseD96%
  7. NJ-06 HouseD97%
  8. NJ-07 HouseD91%