US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-12 House.
Democrat Cait Conley and Republican Mike Lawler made their case to voters to represent the Hudson Valley in Congress during their second and final debate for New York’s 17th Congressional District.
State Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs, a top Hochul ally, gave Gendebien a pass for not publicly backing the governor. He said Gendebien needs to attract Republican votes to pull off an upset.
The article reports that Aaron Gies, a Democratic political newcomer, will challenge Republican incumbent Nick Langworthy for New York's 23rd Congressional District seat in the upcoming general election.
The article covers candidate Caroline McIntyre's campaign for New York’s 25th Congressional District, where she faces incumbent Democrat Joe Morelle in November.
The article highlights the race for New York’s 25th Congressional District (not NY-18). It notes incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle facing challenger Virginia McIntyre with Election Day about three weeks away.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMicah Lasher | 98.1% | 97.3% | 98.9% | 1.6 pts | – | |
| RCaroline Shinkle | 1.1% Kalshi only |
– | 1.1% | – | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Caroline Shinkle, a lawyer, is the Republican nominee for New York's open 12th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Micah Lasher and independents Wilneida Negron and Karen Ortiz.
Micah Lasher, a Democrat who has represented the 69th district in the New York State Assembly since 2025, is his party's nominee for the open 12th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Caroline Shinkle.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 12th District margin of victory
| Lasher, 54+ pts | 90.0% | |
| Lasher, 57+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Lasher, 60+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Lasher, 63+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Lasher, 66+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Lasher, 69+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Lasher, 72+ pts | 5.8% | |
| Lasher, 75+ pts | 5.7% implied | |
| Lasher, 78+ pts | 4.6% implied |
NY-12 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 0-45% | 4.4% | |
| Democrat 45-55% | 1.4% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 22.9% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 27.2% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 27.5% | |
| Democrat 70-75% | 16.0% | |
| Democrat 75-80% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 80-85% | 3.9% | |
| Democrat 85%+ | 4.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Micah Lasher: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 97.4% · $702 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Micah Lasher: Counted · bid 98.1% / ask 99.7% · $711 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Micah Lasher
If the House member sworn in for NY-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
