House · 3 November 2026

NY-20 House 2026

97.3% DPaul Tonko leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.2%
Kalshi: 97.6%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Paul Tonko, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DPaul Tonko	97.3%		97.2%	97.6%	0.4 pts	–
RRalph Ambrosio	2.5%		2.6%	1.9%	0.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Paul Tonko

Democratic U.S. Representative for New York's 20th congressional district (since 2013)

Paul Tonko, a Democrat who has represented New York's 20th congressional district since 2013 after first entering Congress in 2009, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican attorney Ralph Ambrosio.

Born 1949 · Amsterdam, New York

Full candidate profile →

Ralph Ambrosio

Republican

Ralph Ambrosio, a Republican attorney, is his party's nominee for New York's 20th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Paul Tonko.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.6K contracts

New York's 20th District margin of victory

Tonko, 14+ pts		92.3% implied
Tonko, 17+ pts		93.3%
Tonko, 20+ pts		86.3%
Tonko, 23+ pts		75.5%
Tonko, 26+ pts		62.5%
Tonko, 29+ pts		46.5%
Tonko, 32+ pts		31.5%
Tonko, 35+ pts		19.0%
Tonko, 38+ pts		8.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.4K traded

NY-20 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		3.3%
Democrat 0-10%		1.2%
Democrat 10-15%		0.4%
Democrat 15-20%		4.6%
Democrat 20-25%		4.5%
Democrat 25-30%		26.0%
Democrat 30-35%		24.5%
Democrat 35-40%		16.5%
Democrat 40%+		12.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$47.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Paul Tonko: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 97.5% · $3.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.8K contracts traded