US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-22 House.
The article discusses Donald Trump’s upstate New York visit to Syracuse as a strategic move to bolster Republican House candidates, including Kailee Buller, who is challenging Democrat Rep. John Mannion in NY-22.
Kailee Buller is the Republican challenger in New York’s 22nd Congressional District race against incumbent Democrat John Mannion.
The article/video features Skaneateles girls soccer head coach Mike McCaffery speaking with The Citizen after a 0-0 draw against Jamesville-DeWitt on Oct. 15.
MannionThe article reports that 55 Democratic members, including Representative John Mannion (NY-22), signed a letter urging against the U.S. withdrawing from the International Labour Organization (ILO).
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJohn Mannion | 94.7% | 94.5% | 94.8% | 0.3 pts | – | |
| RKailee Buller | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 0.7 pts | – |
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John Mannion, a Democrat and former state senator who has represented New York's 22nd congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Kailee Buller, a former U.S. Department of Agriculture chief of staff.
Kailee Buller, a Republican and former chief of staff of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, challenges Democratic incumbent John Mannion for New York's 22nd congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 22nd District margin of victory
| Mannion, 5+ pts | 94.9% | |
| Mannion, 8+ pts | 93.1% | |
| Mannion, 11+ pts | 86.1% | |
| Mannion, 14+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Mannion, 17+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Mannion, 20+ pts | 47.0% | |
| Mannion, 23+ pts | – | |
| Mannion, 26+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Mannion, 29+ pts | 9.8% |
NY-22 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.6% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 1.1% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 1.3% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 11.0% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 24.0% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 38.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 22.5% | |
| Democrat 30%+ | 5.4% |
Prices which party wins.
John Mannion: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $5.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
John Mannion: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 95.5% · $5.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: John Mannion
If the House member sworn in for NY-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
