US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for NY-25 House.
The article discusses Kathy Hochul’s rise to New York governor in 2021 and notes that her transition followed long-running calls for then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo to resign. It quotes Rep.
MorelleThe article reports that U.S. Representative Joseph Morelle (D-NY-25) joined colleagues in a letter demanding answers from the CDC on childhood vaccines, measles deaths, and delayed vaccine access.
MorelleThe article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
HarderMorelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
Himes
Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJoseph Morelle | 96.9% | 96.8% | 97.4% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| RVirginia McIntyre | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Joseph Morelle, a Democrat who has represented New York's 25th congressional district since 2018 and formerly served as New York State Assembly majority leader, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Virginia McIntyre.
Virginia McIntyre, a Republican Monroe County legislator, challenges Democratic incumbent Joseph Morelle for New York's 25th congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 25th District margin of victory
| Morelle, 16+ pts | 96.5% | |
| Morelle, 19+ pts | 95.6% | |
| Morelle, 22+ pts | 91.2% | |
| Morelle, 25+ pts | 84.0% | |
| Morelle, 28+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Morelle, 31+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Morelle, 34+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Morelle, 37+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Morelle, 40+ pts | 11.3% |
NY-25 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 3.1% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 23.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 27.4% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 14.6% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 2.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Joseph Morelle: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.6% · $5.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Joseph Morelle: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 98.1% · $1.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Joseph Morelle
If the House member sworn in for NY-25 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
