nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

OH-02 House 2026

96.6% RDavid Taylor leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
97.4%
Kalshi
96.3%
Spread
1.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OH-02 House.

Top story

Election Summary Report

Jen Mazzuckelli. DEM. 0. David J. Taylor. REP. 0. Total Votes. 0. Total. Unresolved Write-In. 0. Total. Times Cast. 0 / 17,057. 0.00%. 2nd Congressional

boe.ohio.govOfficialMazzuckelli
  1. Press Release: Dave Taylor Introduces Bill to Increase Federal Lands Revenue Share for Ohio

    Representative David (Dave) Taylor (OH-02) introduced the Acquired Lands Revenue Modernization Act in Congress, with a Senate companion by Sen. Bernie Moreno.

    Quiver QuantitativeTaylor
  2. 101 Members of Congress Support Measure to Ask Rubio to Continue Waiver of Military Support for Azerbaijan - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

    Friedman (D-CA), Robert Garcia (D-CA), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Young Kim (R-CA), Mike Levin (D-CA), Sam Liccardo (D-CA), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Dave Min (D-CA), Kevin Mullin (D-CA), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Luz…

    mirrorspectator.comWhitesidesLatimerTaylorSchneiderCarson
  3. Flags will be lowered in Oregon to honor firefighter killed in Oklahoma

    Oregon Governor Tina Kotek ordered half-staff flags on Oct. 17 at public buildings to honor firefighter David Taylor, who died Aug. 29 while assisting evacuations during the Railroad South Fire in Oklahoma.

    Statesman JournalTaylor
  4. VersaBank Initiates Commercial Phase of Tokenized Deposit Program in the United States

    VersaBank, led by founder and president David Taylor, has announced the commercial phase launch of its tokenized deposit program in the United States.

    microcaps.comTaylor
  5. Labour finally turns on the Greens

    David Taylor, the Labour MP for North West Leicestershire (OH-02), vehemently opposed Labour-Green coalitions, arguing there should be no power-sharing or Green administrations in office.

    spectator.comTaylor

David Taylor, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RDavid Taylor 96.6% 97.4% 96.3% 1.1 pts –
DJennifer Mazzuckelli 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

David Taylor

David Taylor

Republican U.S. Representative for Ohio's 2nd congressional district (since 2025)

David Taylor, a Republican business owner who has represented Ohio's 2nd congressional district since 2025, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Jennifer Mazzuckelli, a homemaker.

Born 1969 · Ohio

Jennifer Mazzuckelli, a homemaker and 2024 candidate for Clermont County commissioner, is the Democratic nominee for Ohio's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent David Taylor.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi314 contracts

Ohio's 2nd District margin of victory

Taylor, 24+ pts
94.5%
Taylor, 27+ pts
83.5%
Taylor, 30+ pts
73.5%
Taylor, 33+ pts
62.5%
Taylor, 36+ pts
51.5%
Taylor, 39+ pts
40.5%
Taylor, 42+ pts
29.5%
Taylor, 45+ pts
18.5%
Taylor, 48+ pts
8.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$8.1K traded

OH-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.3%
Republican 0-10%
1.4%
Republican 10-20%
0.5%
Republican 20-25%
5.0%
Republican 25-30%
22.2%
Republican 30-35%
23.5%
Republican 35-40%
27.0%
Republican 40-45%
5.5%
Republican 45-50%
17.1%
Republican 50%+
8.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$61.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

David Taylor: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 98.2% · $404 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

David Taylor: Counted · bid 95.6% / ask 97.0% · $951 within 5 pts

Contract shown: David Taylor

If the House member sworn in for OH-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Ohio

  1. Ohio Senate (special)D64%
  2. Ohio GovernorD71%
  3. OH-01 HouseD92%
  4. OH-03 HouseD98%
  5. OH-04 HouseR96%
  6. OH-05 HouseR95%
  7. OH-06 HouseR97%
  8. OH-07 HouseD81%