US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for OH-04 House.
“We just, you know, we were asking the village voters to please continue to support the parks,” Jarvis said. “It’s going for all great stuff, and we enjoy seeing all the facilities being used.”
JordanThe district includes all of Allen, Auglaize, Champaign, Hardin, Logan, Marion, Morrow, Shelby and Union counties and parts of Delaware and Richland counties.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJim Jordan | 95.5% | 95.0% | 96.6% | 1.6 pts | – | |
| DJoshua Kolasinski | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jim Jordan, a Republican who has represented Ohio's 4th congressional district since 2007 and chairs the House Judiciary Committee, faces Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and independent Tracey Tackett in his 2026 re-election bid.
Joshua Kolasinski, a small business owner and Democrat, is his party's 2026 nominee for Ohio's 4th congressional district against Republican incumbent Jim Jordan and independent Tracey Tackett.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Ohio's 4th District margin of victory
| Jordan, 25+ pts | 89.1% | |
| Jordan, 28+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Jordan, 31+ pts | 69.5% | |
| Jordan, 34+ pts | 56.0% | |
| Jordan, 37+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Jordan, 40+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Jordan, 43+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Jordan, 46+ pts | 7.7% | |
| Jordan, 49+ pts | 7.7% implied |
OH-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | |
| Republican 0-15% | 1.0% | |
| Republican 15-25% | 10.1% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 19.4% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 30.9% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 26.3% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 12.4% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 3.6% | |
| Republican 50-55% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 55%+ | 1.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Jim Jordan: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jim Jordan: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.9% · $548 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jim Jordan
If the House member sworn in for OH-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
